Cantonese Cat used his October 28 video to zero in on the Dogecoin market structure, arguing that the meme-coin is nearing the end of a multi-year accumulation phase—and that the recent washout was a feature, not a bug, of that process. While he declined to publish numeric price targets in the video, he made the case that DOGE’s setup is maturing in lockstep with broader “risk-on” signals, with a familiar lag to Ethereum that historically precedes Dogecoin’s larger moves.
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On structure, he was explicit. “Just looking at Doge here, you can see how […] Doge has been forming a cup over here for close to four and a half, five years now […] it’s just been building a big giant base.” In his read, the rounded bottom is the defining pattern of this cycle for DOGE, and it remains intact despite recent volatility.
He framed the sharp drawdown two weeks ago as necessary positioning rather than a break in trend: “You just had a great deleveraging event […] I’m not going to look at a lower low and think the trend is broken […] These are very healthy deleveraging before the next move up as far as I’m concerned.” He highlighted “a big giant wick” and “a lot of demand down below,” pointing to what he sees as resilient spot support through the base.
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Timing, not targets, was the centerpiece. He reiterated that Dogecoin typically follows Ethereum with a delay once ETH clears its own major resistance bands. “Whenever we get closer to the end of the rounded bottom […] that’s when Ethereum breaks out above the resistance zone and goes up a lot higher. Thus, Doge runs together with Ethereum,” he said, adding: “There is a lag. I would say the lag is probably maybe a couple months between Ethereum breaking up and Doge finally breaking above this rounded bottom here and going up.”
He made a similar observation using risk proxies, noting that DOGE moves have historically trailed small-cap-led risk cycles by several months, though he cautioned that the exact interval can vary. Via X, he added “DOGE lags behind IWM [iShares Russell 2000 ETF] all-time-high breakout by about 2 to 4 months before it takes off.”
Cantonese Cat also pushed back on the view that a sequence of lower lows automatically invalidates the DOGE setup, arguing that this occurred in prior cycles just before outsized rallies. “A lot of people look at this, ‘that’s a lower low […] the cycle is over.’ Well, it doesn’t work that way. That’s a lower low right there. Next thing you know, it just went a lot higher,” he said, tying the observation to the current “healthy deleveraging” and the persistence of the rounded-bottom structure.
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If the video offered the structural blueprint, his same-day post on X clarified his stance on headline targets. “I realize that it’s stupid to call for DOGE to $2 or $4 when price is at 20 cents. If I was smart like others, I should just call for DOGE to $2 or $4 when it’s $2 or $4.” The comment is consistent with his prior price predictions.
Inside the video update, the analyst instead emphasized the sequence he expects to matter—ETH strength first, DOGE follow-through second, with the magnitude determined by how far the broader risk cycle runs once momentum rotates.
At press time, DOGE traded at $0.20.
Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
