XRP fell about 8% since last week and dropped below the $3 psychological mark, trading near $2.73 after a sell-off that followed rejection at $2.94.
According to Sistine Research, a pattern of tightening price action — known as a compression phase — is forming again, and that pattern could set the stage for a sharp move once buyers or sellers push price out of the narrow range.
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Compression Phase Returning
Based on reports from Sistine Research, XRP has entered its third major compression phase since the US election last November. In plain terms, price swings have grown smaller as trading has concentrated into a tighter band.
That shrinking range can build pressure. When that pressure releases, price can move quickly because there are fewer orders nearby to slow the move.
Expecting a large expansionary move from XRP soon (within months).
As the price action compresses, so does the orderbook, with most liquidity compressing into a tighter and tighter range.
This results in very large gaps in liquidity.
XRP is on its 3rd compression since the… pic.twitter.com/hjRVzeK8wc
— Sistine Research (@sistineresearch) September 24, 2025
Market watchers point to liquidity gaps as a key reason any breakout might be sudden. Based on the explanation given by researchers, buy and sell orders cluster inside the compressed range.
That leaves thin order books just outside the band. If XRP breaks up or down, those thin spots mean less friction and a higher chance of rapid price movement.
History Shows Compression Can Precede Big Gains
Past cycles for XRP back up the basic idea that compression can precede big moves. In early 2017, XRP rose from about $0.0054 in February to roughly $0.43 in May — a move that amounted to a nearly hundred-fold gain over roughly three months.
Analyst Targets Add Fuel To The Debate
No single price target was set by Sistine Research, but other analysts have published bold scenarios. Matt Hughes has mapped Fibonacci extension levels at $8.30, $13.39, and $26.63, and projects a potential 770% rally to some of those zones.
According to his math, a stake of 40,000 XRP could be worth more than $1,000,000 at the highest target. Those projections are being used by bullish traders as reference points, while skeptics warn that big targets come with big risks.
#XRP – Patterns Repeat, But You Keep Ignoring It! Target: $15-$33 🎯:
▫️The last phase of the #XRP bull run always leaves significant clues, and I’m not overlooking them! 🧐 While many in the #XRP community are panicking, I see a different picture. Some are selling off their… pic.twitter.com/j2D5iY5m5L
— EGRAG CRYPTO (@egragcrypto) September 25, 2025
‘Patterns Repeat, But You Keep Ignoring It’
Meanwhile, Egrag Crypto, a well-known XRP bull, has reiterated that historical patterns provide clues and has criticized lower forecasts as misleading.
According to his commentary, the same setups that preceded previous rallies are reappearing now, and those who dismiss them may be underestimating upside potential.
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What Traders Should Watch
Short-term traders will likely monitor support near current levels and watch order flow around $2.95.
A clear breakout above the tight band could trigger fast moves if liquidity gaps remain; conversely, a failure to hold support could lead to a quick drop.
Based on reports, the coming weeks could be decisive for XRP’s next directional move.
Featured image from Meta, chart from TradingView
