Bloomberg Intelligence ETF analyst James Seyffart commented:
“Looks like XRPC from Canary Funds has the largest day-1 trading volume so far for an ETF launch in 2025. Squeaks by BSOL’s ~$57 mln. Doing it on a down day like today is pretty impressive.
Day-One Hype or a BTC-Spot ETF Competitor?
Traders will now need to decide whether day-one trends stemmed from pent-up demand or whether XRP-spot ETFs are likely to meet lofty expectations.
Canary Capital CEO Steven McClurg recently upped his $5 million first-month inflow projection, stating:
“I may have been a little bearish. We’re going to hold to that number. If it hits that number, at least I’ll be right, and if it’s $10 billion, then I’m still right because we got at least $5 billion. If we saw that kind of inflow, I think it would definitely be in the top 20 ETFs of all time, if not in the top 10.”
While Canary Capital benefited from a first-to-market advantage, other XRP-spot ETF issuers may perform even better.
According to VettaFi, Franklin Templeton (#19), Bitwise (#56), CoinShares (#99), and WisdomTree (#179) rank above Canary Capital (#238) by assets under management. The rankings suggest XRPC’s inflows could be modest relative to Franklin Templeton and Bitwise in particular, painting a positive demand outlook.
The Bitwise and Franklin Templeton XRP-spot ETFs are expected to launch next week after the ETF issuers filed amended S-1 forms that removed the delaying amendment language.
Risk Assets Tumble as Fed Rate Cut Bets Slide
While XRPC’s day-one of trading impressed market analysts, fading bets of a December Fed rate cut weighed on sentiment.
According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the chances of a December rate cut dropped from 62.9% on Wednesday, November 12, to 50.7% on Thursday, November 13. Risk aversion weighed on institutional appetite for global-listed stocks, BTC-spot, ETH-spot ETFs, and cryptos.
The Nasdaq Composite Index slid 2.34% on Thursday, November 13. Meanwhile, BTC-spot and ETH-spot ETF issuers reported net outflows of $459.4 million and $103.7 million, respectively. These outflows underscored the significance of Thursday’s XRPC launch and reported inflows.
Considering XRPC’s first day of trading, XRP could reverse Thursday’s losses if inflows remain robust on day two.
Technical Outlook: Key XRP Price Levels
XRP slid 2.69% on Thursday, November 13, following the previous day’s 0.2% loss, closing at $2.3230. The token tracked the broader crypto market, which dropped 2.34%.
Three consecutive days of losses left XRP trading well below the 50-day and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), indicating bearish momentum.
However, several scenarios could trigger a trend reversal, potentially sending XRP through $3.
Key technical levels to watch include:
Support levels: $2.2, $2.0, and $1.9.
50-day EMA resistance: $2.5340.
200-day EMA resistance: $2.5760.
Resistance levels: $2.35, $2.5, $2.62, $2.8, $3.0, and $3.66.
