XRP is struggling at $1.35. The market is bracing for a volatile week. And quietly, the data on Binance is telling a story the price chart has not yet decided to believe.
An Arab Chain report tracking supply dynamics on Binance has identified a reading that stands out against the current bearish backdrop: XRP’s scarcity indicator has reached 0.59 — its highest level since 2024. That number reflects something specific and consequential. The supply of XRP available for immediate sale on the platform is contracting, not expanding.
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Coins are leaving exchanges. Investors are withdrawing to private wallets, locking positions for the long term, and removing liquidity from the market’s most accessible selling venue.
The historical context sharpens the significance. This same indicator spent months in deeply negative territory — registering its worst readings during the periods of heaviest selling pressure and peak exchange inflows earlier in the cycle.
The move into positive territory, and now toward a multi-year high, represents a behavioral reversal: the sellers who were flooding the market are stepping back, and the holders who are replacing them are not selling.
XRP at $1.35 looks fragile. The scarcity data says the floor beneath it is quietly being reinforced. One of them will prove correct first.
The Sellers Are Stepping Back. The Question Is Whether Buyers Are Ready to Step Forward
Arab Chain’s behavioral read of the scarcity data is where the report becomes most consequential. A scarcity indicator climbing to its highest level since 2024 is not just a supply metric — it is a behavioral fingerprint. It reflects who is currently holding XRP and what they intend to do with it.
The answer, according to the data, is that the short-term sellers who dominated earlier in the cycle are being replaced by a different category of participant entirely: long-term holders, accumulating quietly, withdrawing from exchanges, and removing their coins from the available sell-side pool.
That shift has a name in market structure analysis. It is called an accumulation phase, and the scarcity index reaching a multi-year high is one of its clearest on-chain signatures. Short-term selling pressure is declining. Investor confidence, at least among those moving coins off exchanges, is increasing. The balance of the market is tilting toward buyers.
The report is careful about what comes next. The accumulation thesis holds only if two conditions persist: overall market sentiment continues to improve, and exchange supply continues to contract. If both hold, the setup for a stronger price movement builds gradually but structurally.
XRP at $1.35 is the price the market is offering. The scarcity data suggest fewer and fewer participants are willing to sell it there.
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The XRP Chart Has Not Changed Its Mind.
XRP is trading at $1.3510, up 1.75% on the day — a green candle that opened at $1.3279, reached $1.3669, and is holding modest gains into the afternoon session. On any other chart, a 1.75% daily gain would be unremarkable. On this one, it barely registers against the damage accumulated since July.
The daily structure is unambiguous and has been for months. XRP peaked near $3.90 in late July 2025 and has traced a textbook descending staircase ever since — lower highs in August, October, January, and March, each rally sold into at a lower level than the one before. The February capitulation wick to $1.15, accompanied by the heaviest sell volume on the entire chart, established the floor the market is currently defending. That defense has held. It has not yet become a foundation.
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All three moving averages confirm the structural damage. The 50-day MA has crossed below the 100-day MA — a death cross on the intermediate timeframe — and both are accelerating lower toward the $1.60–$1.80 region. The 200-day MA descends from approximately $2.10, so distant from the current price that reclaiming it is a medium-term ambition, not a near-term target.
Today’s candle is constructive. The trend surrounding it is not. XRP needs a daily close above $1.45 to begin suggesting the post-capitulation range is building a base rather than forming a continuation pattern toward lower levels.
Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com
