A crypto analyst has shared two interesting scenarios she believes that the Bitcoin price could follow, depending on the direction of its next moves. According to the analyst, a price breakdown to new lows near $50,000 could be bullish for BTC, suggesting the cryptocurrency may reverse to the upside after hitting that bottom. On the other hand, she has also shared a bearish thesis which could see the flagship cryptocurrency extending its already prolonged downtrend.
A Possible Bullish Scenario For The Bitcoin Price
Crypto market analyst Tara has presented a price chart outlining a detailed roadmap for Bitcoin, depending on if it breaks upwards or downwards. At the moment, the cryptocurrency is trading sideways with no clear direction, despite its latest rebound. Tara has described this recent bounce above $71,000 as “noise,” noting that it has done nothing to make the cryptocurrency’s path clearer.
At the time of her analysis, posted on X, Tara stated that Bitcoin is sitting at a major decision zone, right in the middle of the macro 0.382 Fibonacci resistance at $98,096 and the 0.5 Fibonacci support area at $93,038. For her bullish outlook, the analyst predicts that BTC needs to break the 0.382 resistance level for the cryptocurrency’s mid- or long-term price targets to become more visible.
In her price chart, the analyst outlines an ABC pattern that shows where Bitcoin could move next, along with its upper price targets once the resistance is broken. If the cryptocurrency breaks below the 0.618 support at $69,891 to reach $50,000, Tara forecasts that Bitcoin could eventually gather enough bullish momentum to break past the bearish $93,200 resistance.
Once this happens, Tara projects that Bitcoin could explode to a new all-time high above its current peak of around $126,000, officially ending its downtrend. Although she has shared an alternative bearish thesis, the analyst notes that the ATH breakout is her preferred and most likely scenario for Bitcoin right now.
The Alternative Downside Path
Alternatively, Tara warns that if Bitcoin rallies above $90,000 without a meaningful correction, it could set the stage for a sharp price crash. Supporting her bearish outlook, the analyst points to the same ABC pattern on the chart, which outlines a clear downward trajectory for BTC.
The analyst noted that a breakout to the upside would align with the larger ABC structure, potentially driving Bitcoin toward the upper resistance at $93,200. However, she maintains a strong bearish mid-term outlook, warning that such a move could prolong the ongoing corrective phase.
According to her projections, the next major downside target lies around $29,000, marking a significant cycle low and representing a drop of over 68% from the previous $93,200 resistance and an approximately 55% decline from its current price above $71,500.
Featured image created with Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com
