(Bloomberg) — US stock futures fluctuated after a four-day rally as investors sifted through earnings from General Motors Co. and United Parcel Service Inc., and waited for more progress on trade talks.
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Contracts on the S&P 500 were little changed as Treasury yields ticked higher. GM dropped in premarket trading after it pulled earnings guidance for 2025 and put share buybacks on hold until it has more clarity on the impact of US tariffs. UPS also said it wouldn’t give a full-year outlook, even as its first-quarter earnings topped forecasts.
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The S&P 500 index has rebounded from the cusp of a bear market and is set to end the month only 1.5% lower. With the costs of the trade war only starting to filter through the economy, investors are recasting their outlooks to include the possibility of a US recession.
“Before Liberation Day, we saw pretty much no probability of a US recession because the labor market was so strong and corporate balance sheets were solid,” Johanna Kyrklund, chief investment officer at Schroders, told Bloomberg TV. “Now it’s the biggest focus we have as we analyze each company stock-by-stock, we’re looking for that risk to growth.”
So far, just over a third of S&P 500 companies have reported quarterly results, and of those, 75% have beat estimates, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. S&P 500-listed companies worth $20 trillion are set to deliver results this week in one of the heaviest for 2025 earnings seasons. Microsoft Corp. and Meta Platforms Inc. are due to report Wednesday.
Beyond the plethora of earnings, investors will be tracking data for clues on economic resilience in the face of tariffs. Prospects for Federal Reserve interest-rate cuts will be guided by Friday’s US non-farm payrolls figures.
Sentiment earlier was boosted by signs of easing trade tensions after a White House official said imported automobiles would be given a reprieve from separate tariffs on aluminum and steel.
“Markets feel a little too quiet to us at the moment,” said Maya Bhandari, multi-asset strategies EMEA CIO at Neuberger Berman. “We’ve quite a sharp spike in volatility on the initial announcements that since have come down. We are a little skeptical, given some fairly significant risks out there.”
