CLN
Week in Review
- Asian equities were mostly higher this week on the beginning of trade talks between the US and China, as Japan and China outperformed, while Pakistan and India underperformed as conflict flared up in Kashmir.
- As of the market close on Thursday, both Hong Kong and Mainland China had fully recovered losses after the April 2nd “Liberation Day” tariff announcements.
- China executed on multiple policy easing measures on Wednesday, including cutting the reserve requirement ratio (RRR), the 7-day reverse repo rate, and commercial bank lending rates.
- China’s May Day holiday, which concluded this week, saw increased travel and shopping, as home appliance purchases, supported by trade-in subsidies, increased +16% from last year’s May Day, according to a data release Tuesday.
Key News
Asian equities cheered the US-UK trade deal, as Japan, Taiwan, the Philippines, and Pakistan outperformed, while India and China underperformed.
Excluding today’s downdraft, India’s equity market resilience reminds me of the R.E.M. lyric “It’s the end of the world, and I feel fine”. Hong Kong and Mainland China had very light volumes, in advance of the US-China trade talks, which may indicate either a “wait and see” approach or skepticism about a positive outcome. I suspect local investors might not understand that we are transitioning to Resolution, the third stage of the “Art of The Deal”, following stage 1’s hard negotiation and aggressive opening, and stage 2’s chaos, disruption, and brinkmanship. At least, that’s my hope!
Today’s biggest news that weighed on technology and growth stocks were the disappointing financial results from China semiconductor companies, including Semiconductor Manufacturing (SMIC), which fell -4.76%, and Hua Hong Semiconductor, which fell -7.94%. Mainland-listed technology subsectors all underperformed, including technology hardware, electric equipment, communication equipment, semiconductors, and software. Hong Kong-listed growth and internet stocks, except for Alibaba, which gained +1.73%, underperformed, as old-school value plays outperformed.
Mainland investors bought the dip in Hong Kong-listed growth stocks today, making a net $519 million purchase, snapping the rare two-day net sell streak.
After the close, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) released the Monetary Policy Implementation Report for Q1 2025, which noted Q1 GDP growth of +5.4% year-over-year (YoY). The report stated that “the impact of external shocks is increasing, the momentum of world economic growth is insufficient, trade protectionism is on the rise, and geopolitical conflicts continue to exist.” To counter this, the PBOC will “implement a moderately loose monetary policy”.
Consumption subsidies are having an impact as “the retail sales of daily household appliances increased by 38.4% YoY, and the sales of automobiles increased by 11.2% YoY,” while the benefits of the “Special Action Plan for Boosting Consumption” are only just starting.
China’s exports increased 8.1% in April versus expectations of just 2.1%! While exports to the US “plunged” -21% to $33 billion from March’s $40 billion and January’s $47 billion (February fell, due to Chinese New Year), exports to Asia and the EU increased YoY and month-over-month (MoM). Yes, April imports were negative, but remember that commodities’ prices heavily influence them. You should look not at the imports’ value but the raw tonnage. Import tonnage was mixed. There is no significant evidence of why China is negotiating hard with the US, as Asia exports are up +20% YoY and EU exports are up +8% YoY. At the same time, China would suffer from US exports contracting significantly. Perfect timing for the Switzerland meeting!
I saw the following from a European bank’s morning note: “Family offices in Asia are reallocating portfolios, with some exiting the U.S. entirely in favor of Asia and Europe, especially Hong Kong and Mainland China, citing uncertainty and recession risks.” This marks a shift from the U.S., once a top investment destination, as investors take profits and seek better valuations elsewhere.” They didn’t cite, though it appears to be from CNBC’s Robert Frank’s April 3rd article, despite the firm being a trading counterparty and custodian. Still, they didn’t mention their trading desk flows or custody movements. By no means the end of American Exceptionalism, but a global rebalance of the US equity overweight is likely occurring.
I spent several college summers working in New York City at First Manhattan Co. for Mr. Muccia, a family friend. For Berkshire Hathaway fans, they will recognize FMC and its founder, Sandy Gottesman, who sat on the board for many years. If I mumbled or stumbled on an answer to a question, Mr. Muccia drilled into me being direct and articulate by having me leave the room, “collect my thoughts,” and provide a succinct answer to him. A long-time friend and associate told me yesterday’s post on Washington, DC, and the Holding Foreign Companies Accountable Act (HFCAA) was not clear to him. I appreciate the advice! Why has the US-listed China stock potential delisting become an issue recently?
Ultimately, focusing on this issue could jeopardize Trump’s “big, beautiful deal, ” so I believe it will likely fade as trade negotiations progress.
Holding Foreign Companies Accountable Act (HFCAA) requires the SEC and PCAOB to state annually that they can access and audit the auditors.
- No statements have been made since their December 2022 (www.sec.gov/hfcaa) announcement that they had access to the auditors, which had not been allowed until a change in Chinese law.
- Additionally, many Chinese companies have gone public since December 2022. Can their auditors be inspected?
- An effort will be made to determine whether the SEC and PCAOB have been checking on access annually and not publishing or have been blocked and not reported. The new SEC head will be given time to investigate the issue, but we should expect him to determine the answer.
- I believe the SEC and PCAOB continue to have access.
- There will be scrutiny of the variable interest entity (VIE) structure, despite the structure having been created by US private equity investors wanting to circumvent Chinese law that prevented foreign private equity investors from investing in Chinese tech companies twenty-five years ago. The solution? Make it a Cayman company, and not a Chinese company! China has since tacitly approved of the structure. If you are interested in the structure’s history, check out our article from 2022.
- I found the sentiment toward China in DC to be toxic currently, despite the strong economic ties between the US and China, and the significant revenue exposure of US companies to the Chinese economy ($1.1 trillion of S&P 500 revenue, according to Apollo). An element of this is mid-term elections.
- Would this issue jeopardize US-China trade talks? That is not a consideration since Congress drives this, while the White House drives the trade talks.
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Last Night’s Performance
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Last Night’s Exchange Rates, Prices, & Yields
- CNY per USD 7.24 versus 7.24 yesterday
- CNY per EUR 8.14 versus 8.18 yesterday
- Yield on 10-Year Government Bond 1.64% versus 1.63% yesterday
- Yield on 10-Year China Development Bank Bond 1.66% versus 1.67% yesterday
- Copper Price 0.10%
- Steel Price -1.17%
