Topline
Timothée Chalamet won the best actor prize at the Screen Actors Guild Award on Sunday, while the political thriller “Conclave” took home the best ensemble cast prize, in a set of surprise wins that have upended predictions for the top prizes at next week’s Oscar Awards.
Timothee Chalamet accepts the award for outstanding performance by a male actor in a leading role … [+]
Key Facts
Chalamet won the best actor prize for his leading role in “A Complete Unknown”, a biographical musical drama about the life of Bob Dylan—beating out heavy favorite “Adrien Brody.”
Before the SAG Awards, Brody had swept the best actor prize for his leading role in the period drama “The Brutalist” at the Golden Globes, the Critics Choice Awards and the British Academy Film Awards—and was considered a heavy favorite to win at the Oscars.
With its best ensemble cast win “Conclave”, the Ralph Fiennes-led political thriller set in the Vatican, beat out heavy favorites like “Anora” and “The Brutalist.”
The last three winners of the best ensemble cast prize—CODA, Everything Everywhere All at Once and Oppenheimer—have gone on to win the best picture at the Oscars.
Demi Moore took home the best actress award for her leading role in “The Substance,” adding to her wins at the Critics Choice Awards and the Golden Globes and making her the firm favorite to win the top prize at the Oscars.
Get Forbes Breaking News Text Alerts: We’re launching text message alerts so you’ll always know the biggest stories shaping the day’s headlines. Text “Alerts” to (201) 335-0739 or sign up here.
How Have The Sag Awards Affected The Oscar Betting Markets?
The two surprise wins by Chalamet and “Conclave” have shaken up the betting markets, with both winners shooting up the bookmakers’ charts for the Oscars. On the crypto-based betting platform Polymarket, Adrien Brody comfortably led the race for Oscars: Best Actor, with bettors giving him a 77% chance of winning before the SAG Awards. But after Chalamet’s win, Brody’s odds dipped as low as 51% before recovering slightly to 59%, while Chalamet’s chances shot up to 46% before settling at 36%. A similar swing was also visible on the betting market Kalshi with Brody’s odds now being 61% (down 14 points from previous day) and Chalamet’s being 38% (up 17 points). The market for the “Best Picture” race was also shaken up by Sunday’s results, with heavy favorite Anora’s odds dropping from 76% to 58%. “Conclave”, which began the night in third place in the market, has vaulted to become the second favorite—ahead of “The Brutalist”—with its odds rising from around 6% to 29%. “Anora” is also the bookmakers’ favorite on Kalshi, but its odds have dropped by 10 points to 60% while “Conclave” is up by 13 points to 27%.
How Have The Odds For The Best Actress Award Changed?
Ahead of Sunday’s SAG Awards, Demi Moore and “Anora” star Mikey Madison were the bookmakers’ joint favorite to win the best actress prize at the Oscars. However, Moore’s win Sunday made her the firm favorite for bettors on Polymarket, who now give her a 61% chance of winning—up from 45%. Madison’s odds on the crypto betting platform have dropped from around 45% to 32%. On Kalshi, Moore’s odds briefly hit 75% after her SAG Award win before settling at 65%. Odds for Madison, who was locked with Moore at around 47% before Sunday’s ceremony, have dropped to 33%.
Further Reading
SAG Awards 2025 Full Winners List: ‘Conclave,’ ‘Only Murders in the Building’ and ‘Shōgun’ Take Home Top Honors (Variety)
