S&P 500
The trends of the major indexes are identifiable by examining the direction of price and, more significantly, of the moving averages.
The support levels are those price areas where buyers previously overcame sellers and the trend changed from down to up. A test of such levels – did price stop going down? did price go lower? – provides insights.
The S&P 500 daily:
S&P 500 daily price chart, 4 17 25.
The near-term trend is downward. This is clear because the price is trading below both the 50-day and the 200-day moving averages. The former has been trending down since mid to late February. The latter has been in an up trend until early this month and now looks to be headed sideways or flat.
The early April slide took the price to below the early August 2024 low, a previous support level. Although the S&P 500 has managed to make back above that level, it’s concerning that the index is unable to reach higher than the month’s previous highs – it’s stalled.
The S&P 500 weekly:
S&P 500 weekly price chart, 4 17 25.
The early March 2025 dip took the price below the 50-week moving average. On a closing basis, it has stayed below it since then. The late March/early April slide tested the levels just above the up trending 200-week moving average. Note how the index has been unable to cross above the 50-week.
The initial support level is near the $4100 low of October 2023 and should selling intensify, the next likely support would be the October 2022 low near $3500.
The Nasdaq 100 daily:
Nasdaq 100 daily price chart, 4 17 25.
I’ve red-circled the spot where the 50-day moving average recently crossed below the 200-day moving average, an event of interest to those money managers who take trend following seriously. Note how the early April price tankage took the index to below the August low. It’s recovered since then but remains below the key moving averages.
For the chart to be seen as possibly bullish again, the price would need to cross above the early April high of 19250. The March high of near 20230 is the next likely resistance zone, at about the level where the 50/200 cross just took place.
The Nasdaq 100 weekly:
Nasdaq 100 weekly price chart, 4 17 25.
The price in early March dropped below an up trending 50-week moving average and has stayed below it. The early April low of near 16500 is a likely support area now. The next likely area of support would be the October 2023 low near 14000.
The Russell 2000 daily:
Russell 2000 daily price chart.
The 50-day moving average in March crossed below the 200-day moving average (red circled), a sign of near-term weakness. The price in April dropped well below the previous support level from the early August 2023 low. The ETF has yet to make it back above that.
The Russell 2000 weekly:
Russell 2000 weekly price chart, 4 17 25.
That the price has dropped below both the 50-week and the 200-week moving average shows how much weaker this group of stocks is than the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100. Both of those measures for the Russell 2000 have turned downward. The $160 lows of October 2023, October 2022 and June 2022 may be the next likely area for support should selling continue.
Stats courtesy of FinViz.com. Charts courtesy of Stockcharts.com.
More analysis and commentary at johnnavin.substack.com.
