The Surprising Statistic Behind Nottingham Forest’s Success

Nottingham Forest has been the surprise package of the 2024/25 Premier League season.

At the start of the season, many pundits had predicted Forest would get relegated, but with just seven games to go, the Tricky Trees are still third in the Premier League.

Sports analysts Opta have now given Forest a better than 85% chance of qualifying for the UEFA Champions League. Forest fans aren’t taking anything for granted just yet. They remember the club’s previous end-of-season collapses such as the 4-1 loss to Stoke City in 2020 which meant the club missed out on the Championship playoffs that year on goal difference, or the 5-2 playoff loss to Yeovil Town in 2007.

Surprisingly, there has been little analysis of the reasons behind Nottingham Forest’s success this season, but one statistic might help explain why Forest are doing so well.

Nottingham Forest’s 23 Merry Men

Data used by the Forest Focus podcast ahead of the Reds’ game against Aston Villa that Nottingham Forest had used just 23 players in the Premier League this season. That’s the fewest players in the league.

The next fewest were Newcastle United, Arsenal and Liverpool who have all used 24 players, and it wouldn’t be a surprise if those sides held the top four spots in the league at the end of May.

On the other end of the scale is Southampton, with 34 players used, and Ipswich with 32 players used. Also among the teams who used the most players are underperforming Manchester United and Tottenham Hotspur.

In each of Nottingham Forest’s two previous seasons, the club used 33 players in the Premier League, a similar number to those struggling teams.

When it comes to the number of players who’ve played more than 70% of minutes for their club this season, Forest come third with nine players, behind Liverpool and Brentford on ten.

These three sides have a core of consistent regulars, with Forest’s starting eleven basically identical for a large number of games this season apart from Elliot Anderson’s midfield partner, which is sometimes club captain Ryan Yates, sometimes Nicolas Dominguez and sometimes Danilo. The club has only lost once all season (Newcastle away) when Nuno has selected this core eleven.

In Forest’s first season back in the Premier League, only two players managed more than 70% of minutes, and last season, only three Forest players reached 70% of minutes. Morgan Gibbs-White was one of those players in both seasons.

Changing Everything By Changing Nothing

Those statistics show the key change between Nottingham Forest last season and Nottingham Forest this season.

Forest didn’t actually change its squad much in the summer, only signing two key players, Elliot Anderson and Nikola Milenkovic, which is likely why many pundits thought the club would struggle.

But instead of bringing players in, Forest allowed the large number of signings from previous seasons to settle. Head coach Nuno Espirito Santo had time last season to get to know his players’ strengths and weaknesses, and this season has picked a largely unchanged team.

The few times where Nuno has experimented this season, it generally hasn’t worked too well. He tried playing with two out-and-out center forwards, Taiwo Awoniyi and Chris Wood, at home against Fulham in September, which was one of Forest’s two losses at home this season. And against Aston Villa this month, injuries meant Forest started with a back three and without a traditional number nine, and had a very poor first half in a 2-1 loss.

Consistency is key for Forest, especially in defense, which has been among the strongest in the league. Research shows that keeping a consistent team can improve players’ performance, with new signings often taking more than a year before they become fully effective. Forest made a lot of transfers in its first two seasons in the Premier League as it tried to get up to speed with the rest of the league’s clubs. Now that the squad is more settled, those previous signings are starting to shine.

To some extent, success also breeds consistency – you don’t change a winning team. Forest’s consistent line-up is also partly due to a drop-off in quality outside of the starting eleven, particularly in attack, although that may be by design.

But regular time playing together helps build understanding between players, which allows the team to perform better than the sum of its parts.

Fitness Vital To Success

Injuries of course affect a head coach’s ability to pick a consistent team.

Forest had two big injuries right at the start of the season to the then-first choice midfield pairing of Danilo and Ibrahim Sangare, but as this came early on, their replacements were able to get a long run of games, and luckily for Forest, midfield is the one area where the squad has significant depth. Since those early injuries, Forest then largely avoided injuries until the past few weeks.

Part of that is luck, but part is also down to the low-intensity style of play Nuno employs. Forest has the fewest defensive actions in the middle and attacking thirds of the pitch this season, preferring to win the ball back in its own defensive third and counterattack at speed.

That’s a stark contrast to Ange Postecoglou’s high-intensity pressing style at Tottenham Hotspur, which is often cited as one of the reasons behind Spurs’ injury crisis and subsequent poor form this season.

Nottingham Forest’s recent injuries to Ola Aina and Chris Wood have forced a reshuffle, and with reports of other players picking up injuries, it could be more difficult for Nuno to pick a consistent squad for the remainder of the season.