Topline
A pessimistic prediction for Tesla sales from Goldman Sachs added further fuel to the Tesla fire, as the unraveling relationship between Tesla CEO Elon Musk and his former close ally President Donald Trump plays out publicly, accelerating Wall Street’s concerns about the increasing exposure of Tesla to Musk’s outspoken politics.
Elon Musk has alienated “multiple sides of the political spectrum” from Tesla, according to one … More
Key Facts
In a late Thursday note to clients, Goldman Sachs analysts led by Mark Delaney slashed their forecast for second-quarter Tesla vehicle deliveries to 365,000, far below consensus analyst forecasts of 405,000, according to FactSet.
That would be an 18% decline from the same period last year, equating to by far the weakest quarterly deliveries growth since at least 2015, the extent of quarterly delivery data available on Tesla’s investor relations website.
It’s another knock for Tesla as analysts warn this week’s quarrel between Musk and the president, who Musk donated $288 million last year to help elect alongside other Republican candidates, could further weigh on Tesla, which is already grappling with declining brand sentiment on the left, historically the base for EV purchasers.
Crucial Quote
This disagreement “could potentially (temporarily) alienate multiple sides of the political spectrum,” warned Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas in a Friday note.
Contra
Tesla stock bounced back Friday, gaining 6% by early afternoon as part of a broader rally. That only recovered a small portion of Thursday’s historic loss, as the Musk-led firm’s share price is down 9% since Wednesday. The Musk-Trump division “clearly raises the degree of [near-term’ uncertainty” for Tesla, according to TD Cowen analyst Itay Michaeli.
How Trump Could Target Tesla
Amid the kerfuffle, Trump threatened to cancel all of the federal government’s contracts with Musk’s portfolio of companies. That would likely impact the private aerospace and communications firm SpaceX far more than Tesla, which does not rely on government contracts for a significant portion of its revenues, but there is a way Trump could target Tesla’s bottom line directly. Trump could restrict Tesla’s ability to sell its automotive regulatory credits, according to Morningstar strategist Seth Goldstein, referring to the essentially free profit Tesla gets from selling its emissions credits to gas-powered automakers. That could dramatically reduce Tesla profits, as it reported $595 million in those regulatory credits compared to a $934 million net income during 2025’s first quarter, meaning the credits directly contributed about two-thirds of its net profit.
Key Background
Since Musk announced his purchase of Twitter (now X) in 2022, Tesla stock has frequently faced downward pressure as its top decisionmaker and shareholder Musk became increasingly outspoken on politics to much controversy. Musk endorsed Trump in July and rose to become perhaps the most prominent and powerful figure in the early days of Trump’s second administration, though the perceived impact of Musk’s buddying up to Trump turned negative this year as sales globally for the automaker tumbled. In a further sign of fray in the relationship between Musk and Trump, the president has decided to sell his Tesla Model S, according to the New York Times.
What To Watch For
Tesla is expected to report its Q2 delivery numbers July 2.
Further Reading
