To buy or not to buy. That’s the question consumers and businesses across the US are asking amid President Trump’s ongoing global tariff war. And while he paused the most punitive duties on the majority of targeted countries on Wednesday, he simultaneously ratcheted up tariffs on China to 145%.
Prices on high-tech products ranging from smartphones to laptops are certain to rise. Unless, that is, Trump reverses course as he did on Wednesday. But if he doesn’t, consumers and enterprise customers could end up having to shell out significantly more cash than they previously planned.
“I think, broadly speaking, there’s no way to predict what happens next,” said Dallas Dolen, a principal in PwC’s technology practice.
“If anyone says they know what’s going to happen they’re probably … lying to themselves and maybe to others too,” he added.
Some consumers and businesses are already taking steps to insulate themselves from future tariff shocks. Morgan Stanley’s Erik Woodring wrote in a note to investors that his firm is already hearing about increased customer demand at Apple (AAPL) stores.
Apple’s devices are among those that are caught in the trade war crossfire. (Image: Reuters/Clodagh Kilcoyne) ·Reuters / Reuters
Large enterprise customers also pulled forward purchases that they would have put off in the lead up to Trump’s April 2 tariff announcement. With the April 9 pause, that’s bound to accelerate further.
And that could hurt tech companies in the long run.
“We’d imagine it’s extremely difficult to commit to accelerating hardware spend for multiple quarters given the rash of unknowns that still exist,” Woodring explained. “That leaves us believing June-quarter results could potentially be stronger than expected, but that pull-forward could also increase the risk of a [second half of 2025] demand vacuum.”
Read more: What Trump’s tariffs mean for the economy and your wallet
The problem with not knowing whether Trump will permanently pause the worst of the tariffs, or whether he’ll hold the tariffs on China at 145% is that consumers can’t figure out if they should buy devices now, ensuring they are already in the US and not subject to duties, or hold off and hope that Trump claws back tariffs in the near future.
And with customers already buying devices, supplies of products in the US could dwindle fast, putting consumers and enterprises under the gun to make a decision sooner rather than later.
“If you are risk-averse … I can see somebody saying, ‘I’m probably better off buying that big ticket item today,'” Dolen said.
If Trump does keep tariffs on China steady and resumes them on Vietnam and Malaysia, there’s little doubt you’ll have to pay more for your electronics.
“We’re going to see price increases at the point of sale here in the US for a lot of these things very soon,” explained Ryan Reith, group vice president for IDC’s Worldwide Device Tracker suite.
Exactly how much more devices will cost is still up in the air, but some estimates indicate Apple’s iPhone could see as much as a 50% increase, raising the price from $999 to roughly $1,499.
While consumers have their own problems deciding whether to buy now or later, enterprises have an additional wrinkle to consider. Microsoft (MSFT) is preparing to end support for its Windows 10 operating system in October.
That’s expected to spur a large laptop and desktop upgrade cycle among businesses. But if Trump reinstates tariffs on Vietnam and Malaysia and keeps tariffs in place on China, businesses will have to pay far more to upgrade to newer PCs.
It’s not as though companies aren’t working to offset tariff price increases. But without clarity from the Trump administration, planning for the next steps is almost impossible.
“You have companies who have actively set up war room types of teams who are working through everything from a full supply chain point of view, including on the front side of the building,” Dolan said.
So far, he explained, there haven’t been many price increases on products because tariffs only apply to devices that are landing in the US now, not those that are already here. But as inventories of those products decrease, prices on newly landed goods will surely jump.
Read more: $6 eggs and other inflation pain points: Here’s where prices are rising
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Apple and other device makers have the option of leaning on other countries to counter the full impact of tariffs. The iPhone maker has been working to move more of its manufacturing capabilities outside of China since the first Trump administration and now has partner manufacturers in India and Vietnam, among other locations. But it still relies heavily on China to build iPhones.
Ultimately, the Trump administration says it hopes the tariffs will force tech companies to build device manufacturing facilities in the US, but that’s a tall task. Not only does the US not have the available workforce, but paying higher rates to US workers has the potential to drive up the cost of tech products by hundreds of dollars.
Companies also have the option to ask the Trump administration for tariff exemptions. Apple won a number during Trump’s first term, and Trump has mentioned the possibility of offering them in the future.
If he does, and most mainstream tech companies are covered, consumers and enterprises should be able to dodge the worst of Trump’s tariffs. The only problem? The only person who knows what Trump will do is Trump.
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Email Daniel Howley at dhowley@yahoofinance.com. Follow him on Twitter at @DanielHowley.
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