TORONTO, ON – FEBRUARY 9: Alperen Sengun #28 of the Houston Rockets goes to the basket against Jakob … [+]
By any objective measure, this season has been a smashing success so far for the Houston Rockets. A season after winning 41 games and flirting with a play-in appearance, Houston occupied the second seed in the Western Conference for much of the season’s first half and was on pace to win almost 60 games at points fairly deep into the year. But after a six game losing streak, the Rockets have now fallen to fifth in their conference. To say it has been a rollercoaster would be an understatement.
The Rockets have been playing without starting power forward Jabari Smith Jr. for over a month and without starting point guard Fred VanVleet throughout much of the losing streak. All-Star center Alperen Sengun has missed games as well. The mounting injuries are why there should not be too much cause for concern about the freefall in the standings. The Rockets have been one of the league’s best teams when at full health. Without their starters, they have struggled, as most teams would do.
At the time of writing, Houston is seventh overall in net rating at +4.5. And they are still fourth in defense with a defensive rating of 109.3. They have fallen to 13th in offense with an offensive rating of 113.8 after briefly occupying the top ten before the losing streak. The Rockets’ defense has been amongst the league’s elite throughout the entire season. That does not come as a surprise for a team coached by Ime Udoka.
The first task for Houston in the second half will be restoring their health. The All-Star break could not be coming at a better time. Smith, VanVleet, and Sengun are all expected to return soon. Sengun could return as early as this week.
The next question will be what to do with the starting lineup. The Rockets lifted off once sophomore forward Amen Thompson was inserted into the starting lineup in place of the injured Smith. He infused speed and versatility into a lineup which often looked sluggish before his addition. But the drop off on the glass has been material. The Rockets are 28th in defensive rebounding percentage since January 3, the first game Smith missed due to injury. Before that point in the year, they were 11th. And through January 2, the Rockets were second overall in defensive rating at 105.8. In the month they have played without Smith, they have been 18th with a rating of 115.3, a staggering drop-off. It’s undeniable that the team’s defense has suffered without Smith’s size and versatility.
But Thompson has averaged 17 points, 9.7 rebounds, 4.5 assists, 2.0 steals, and 1.8 blocks, on 60.2 true shooting percentage as a starter. And for the entire year, the Rockets are +8.8 when Thompson and Sengun share the floor. It’s difficult to conceive of Thompson returning to the bench. The only other option would be demoting veteran Dillon Brooks, one of the two players (along with VanVleet) most responsible for the team’s culture overhaul. When Smith returns, Udoka will face a critical decision.
