Pacers Keep Beating Absurd Odds With Clutch Play During Win Streak

INDIANAPOLIS – The Indiana Pacers have played three games this week, and in all three they were trailing with 17 seconds left in regulation. Yet somehow, some way, the blue and gold escaped each outing with a win. Indiana has been masterful in the clutch this week and earned some huge victories for the postseason standings race.

“It shows a level of resilience and a level of resourcefulness,” Pacers head coach Rick Carlsile said of his team’s heroics after the third win – an overtime victory over the Brooklyn Nets.

Two of the three impressive comebacks finished in overtime, and the Pacers had just enough fight in the extra frames to win. In each of those periods, Indiana was behind on the scoreboard with 67 seconds left in the action. Yet they won in both outings.

It’s been quite the week for the blue and gold, yet the chaos didn’t start there – they beat the Milwaukee Bucks last Tuesday thanks to a four-point play from Tyrese Haliburton with three seconds to go. In a nine day stretch, they’ve pulled off some incredible, tense finishes. Three of them were in front of their fans in Gainbridge Fieldhouse, and the Pacers are 40-29 as a result.

“Absolutely not,” Pacers center Thomas Bryant said when asked if he’s been a part of a week this crazy in his NBA career. He’s in his eighth NBA season. “This has been an amazing three-game stretch for us,” he added of the last five days. “It just shows you the resiliency that this team has. Whether it’s starters, guys coming off the bench, a mixture of guys, you just see the resiliency every game.”

On top of Haliburton’s miraculous shot last week, the Pacers have gotten clutch plays from Obi Toppin, Andrew Nembhard, Bennedict Mathurin, and Myles Turner this week. Toppin struck first, hitting a three-point shot with four seconds on the clock in overtime to lift the Pacers over the Minnesota Timberwolves. It was a key win for the blue and gold, and their reserves made it happen.

Two days later, Indiana was behind by two late against the Dallas Mavericks. Nembhard wound up open from his favorite spot, deep on the left slot, and he launched a 29-foot three-point shot. He nailed it. The Pacers won by four.

“Nothing was going through my head,” Nembhard shared of his massive jumper. “I just caught it, shot it.”

When the blue and gold beat the Nets Thursday night, there wasn’t one specific shot that sealed the game. It was a few important baskets, along with a bunch of free throws, that guided Indiana late. But the Pacers did have a signature play to get it done – Turner stepped across the lane to block a shot from Keon Johnson with 22 seconds left in the game. It preserved his team’s two-point lead and ended up being the marquee moment in the win.

During the victories over the Mavericks and Nets, Mathurin was sensational in the important seconds. He had 16 points in the final six minutes against Dallas on his way to 23 in total, and the young guard finished with 17 points in the fourth quarter plus overtime versus Brooklyn – he had 28 points and a career-high 16 rebounds vs the Nets. While he didn’t have one specific basket or play to seal a game, he made dozens of important shots and free throws in those wins.

Altogether, these moments and performances created an epic nine-day period for the Pacers. They’ve won five of their last six games and sit in fourth-place in the Eastern Conference standings. Three of the victories have come without Haliburton, the team’s star guard.

“We’re preparing for the playoffs. You’re going to have moments like that in the playoffs,” Turner said of the close games and big plays. “To be battle tested, let [big moments] not be a surprise, be able to control your emotions when everything’s high, that’s an underrated thing in this league.”

While the Pacers have – rightly, many would add – shown impressive resolve, they have certainly beaten the odds in winning five of their last six. Some of their victories since March 11 came in outings during which they looked toast.

What are the odds the Pacers won each of their recent close fourth quarter games?

While win probability models can be flawed, they do tell the story of the Pacers recent games well. The odds that Indiana didn’t lose a single one of their recent close outings is remarkable.

ESPN has a win probability tool that is applied at various moments throughout a game. Here are ESPN’s odds, at their lowest point, for the Pacers in the fourth quarter recently.

March 11 vs Milwaukee Bucks: Bucks 112, Pacers 111. 6.1 seconds to go, Bucks ball after a made free throw by Nembhard. 80.6% chance that the Bucks win.

March 17 vs Minnesota Timberwolves: Timberwolves 97, Pacers 89. 9:59 to go, Timberwolves ball after Julius Randle rebounded a missed shot from Jarace Walker. 90.5% chance that the Timberwolves win.

March 19 vs Dallas Mavericks: Mavericks 128, Pacers 121. 1:07 to go, Pacers ball after three made free throws from Max Christie. 95.4% chance that the Mavericks win.

March 20 vs Brooklyn Nets: Nets 91, Pacers 86. 1:11 to go, Nets ball after a Mathurin turnover. 91.6% chance that the Nets win.

The Pacers only had a better than 10% chance to win against the Bucks. They appeared to be headed for defeat in the other three games. Somehow, Indiana won all four times. They escaped.

Given those odds, the probability that the blue and gold won all four battles is about 1/14,042 – or roughly 0.007%. Yet the Pacers earned a quartet of victories, and they never have to apologize for that.

“I just feel like having those games, especially at the end of the season going into the playoffs, now we know what to do exactly,” Mathurin said, noting that the Pacers better know how to handle certain moments and score situations late in games. “I just feel like it’s a great thing to experience.”

The Pacers sit in fourth place in the Eastern Conference after almost 70 games. They have a chance to host a first-round playoff series. These wins, while improbable, are massive for the team’s potential postseason route. They’ll be confident in close games, but they also need to find a way to win comfortably going forward.