Odds, Lines, Prop Bets, Predictions And Picks

Saturday’s UFC 314 fight card features a featherweight title fight in the main event slot. In that contest, former UFC featherweight champion Alex Volkanovski faces the rising Diego Lopes for the vacant featherweight crown. The PPV co-main event is a pivotal lightweight matchup between former UFC title challenger Michael Chandler and the rising Paddy Pimblett. Also on the main card of UFC 314 is a featherweight contest between Bryce Mitchell and the surging Jean Silva. The PPV also sees former Bellator champion Patricio “Pitbull” Freire making his promotional debut opposite former UFC featherweight title challenger Yair Rodriguez. We look at the betting odds, line movement, prediction, picks and prop bets for the UFC 314 PPV card.

The UFC 314 PPV fight card streams on ESPN+ following prelims on ESPN and early prelims on ESPN+.

UFC 314 Fight Card Main Event: Betting Odds, Line Movement And Predictions – Alexander Volkanovski Vs. Diego Lopes

The winner of the UFC 314 main event will walk away from the Kaseya Center in Miami, Florida with the UFC featherweight title over their shoulder.

In announcing Volkanovski vs. Lopes, UFC CEO Dana White said of the soon to be former UFC featherweight champion Ilia Topuria, “Topuria has felt like he’s done all he can in that division, and he feels like he’s cemented his legacy, and his body cannot make the weight anymore. So Topuria will be moving up to 155 pounds and will be vacating the featherweight title. … As soon as the first punch is thrown in (Volkanovski vs. Lopes), the title is vacated. We will announce what Topuria’s next fight will be when we get it done.”

Volkanovski (26-4) is a former UFC featherweight champion. He held the title from December 2019 through February 2024, defending the belt five times over that time. His reign began with a unanimous decision win over Max Holloway and ended in a knockout loss to Topuria in February 2024.

During his run with the 145-pound belt, Volkanovski twice fought for the UFC lightweight belt, losing to Islam Makhachev in February and October 2023. Makhachev won the first meeting by decision. He followed that with a knockout victory.

Volkanovski has not stepped into the Octagon since his loss to Topuria. He is the No. 1 fighter in the official UFC featherweight rankings.

Lopes (26-6) is the No. 3 fighter in the UFC’s 145-pound weight class. Lopes joined the UFC in May 2023, dropping his promotional debut to Movsar Evloev via decision. Since then, Lopes is unbeaten in five fights. His most recent victory was a UFC 306 decision win over two-time UFC title challenger Brian Ortega.

When the betting odds opened for this contest, Volkanovski was a -145 betting favorite over the +120 Lopes. Those odds have held and remain the same today. Lopes, despite his inexperience compared to Volkanovski, has 66 percent of the bets and 60 percent of the handle.

The betting pick is for the more experienced and poised Volkanovski to win the UFC featherweight crown via decision.

UFC 314 Fight Card Co-Main Event: Betting Odds, Line Movement And Predictions – Michael Chandler Vs. Paddy Pimblett

Michael Chandler (23-9) missed a lot of time over the past few years waiting for a bout opposite Conor McGregor to come together. With that fight looking less likely by the day, Chandler returned to the Octagon on November 2024 to face former UFC champion Charles Oliveira. It was Chandler’s first foray into the cage since a 2022 loss to Dustin Poirier. Oliveira downed Chandler via decision at UFC 309.

Chandler joined the UFC in 2021 after a long and successful tenure with Bellator. As a competitor for that promotion from 2010 through 2020, Chandler was a three-time lightweight champion. He defended the title twice during his first run with the belt and once during his second stint as champ. His third run as Bellator lightweight champ ended with a TKO loss to Patricio “Pitbull” Freire, who is making his UFC debut at UFC 314.

Chandler is 2-4 with the UFC, but outside his 2022 matchup against a fading Tony Ferguson, the 38-year-old has only faced the elite of the division. In addition to his bouts against Poirier and Oliveira, he has met Dan Hooker and Justin Gaethje inside the Octagon.

Chandler’s UFC wins came against Hooker (TKO) and Ferguson (knockout). The former Bellator champ is the No. 7 ranked competitor in the official UFC lightweight rankings.

Paddy Pimblett (22-3) is a former Cage Warriors lightweight champion. He has slowly been working his way up the UFC rankings since making his promotional debut in September 2021. Now 6-0 with the UFC, Pimblett looks to take a step up in competition against Chandler. Pimblett is coming off a UFC 304 “Performance of the Night” bonus-winning submission win over Bobby Green.

Pimblett had a successful run with the Cage Warriors promotion before he joined the UFC in 2021. During his time with Cage Warriors, which spanned 2013 through 2021, Pimblett won and defended the CW featherweight title and fought for that promotion’s lightweight crown.

Pimblett has been a fan favorite since he made his UFC debut and while some have been critical of the matchmaking the UFC have provided for Pimblett, something he addressed at the UFC 314 pre-fight press conference, Pimblett is in for a big test against Chandler.

Pimblett is the No. 12 ranked UFC 155-pound fighter.

Pimblett opened as the -145 favorite over the +120 Chandler. Today, Pimblett is listed at -150, while Chandler comes in at +125. Most of the bets, 54 percent, are on Chandler, while 55 percent of the money is on Pimblett.

Pimblett has more ways to win this fight and he is the betting pick by decision. However, I wouldn’t hesitate in making a value bet on Chandler to win via knockout in the co-main event of UFC 314.

UFC 314 Fight Card: Betting Odds, Line Movement And Predictions – Bryce Mitchell Vs. Jean Silva

Bryce Mitchell (17-2) was 9-0 and coming off a defense of the V3 Fights featherweight title when Mitchell appeared on The Ultimate Fighter reality show. Mitchell defeated Jay Cucciniello in the opening round of that competition, but Brad Katona submitted Mitchell in the semifinals. Despite that (exhibition) loss, the UFC signed Mitchell to a contract.

Mitchell opened his UFC career with six wins, including a December 2019 twister submission victory over Matt Sayles. Mitchell broke into the official UFC rankings during that winning streak with a decision win over Charles Rosa on the UFC 249 early prelims. That victory put him at No. 15 in the UFC’s featherweight division.

Mitchell climbed to No. 9 in those rankings with decision triumphs over Andre Fili and Edson Barboza. He held that ranking and a perfect 15-0 record when he stepped into the Octagon in December 2022 to face the No. 14 ranked Ilia Topuria, who was 4-0 in the UFC at the time. Topuria put the first blemish on Mitchell’s record, submitting him at 3:10 of the first round.

Following the loss to Topuria, Mitchell bounced back with a September 2023 decision over Dan Ige. Mitchell returned to the loss column in his next outing. In that contest, Josh Emmett scored a nasty first-round knockout win over Mitchell, which left Mitchell out cold for an unsettling amount of time.

Following the loss to Emmett, Mitchell wisely took off for almost a full calendar year. When he returned to action in December 2024, he scored a knockout win over Kron Gracie at UFC 310, the same card when Topuria defended the UFC featherweight title.

Heading into UFC 314, Mitchell might be best known for claiming on his podcast, “…I honestly think Hitler was a good guy based upon my own research, not my public education indoctrination.”

Mitchell was booed during the UFC 314 pre-fight press conference. His first public appearance since making that statement.

Today, Mitchell is the No. 13 ranked UFC featherweight.

A member of The Fighting Nerds team out of Brazil, Jean Silva (15-2) joined the UFC in September 2023 when he scored a UFC contract thanks to a decision win over Kevin Vallejos on a Dana White’s Contender Series card. Silva extended his winning streak to eight straight with his win over Vallejos.

Vallejos, who signed with the UFC following a 2024 DWCS win, is the last fighter to go the distance with Silva. Since his DWCS win, Silva has picked up four knockout victories and two fight-night bonus awards.

Silva is coming off a February first-round knockout win over Melsik Baghdasaryan. Before that, he defeated UFC veteran Drew Dober at lightweight.

I wrote of that win, “Jean Silva took a chance. After knocking out Charles Jourdain in late June, the 27-year-old moved up to lightweight to face hard-hitting Drew Dober on the main card of UFC Denver. That chance paid off when Silva picked up a third-round TKO win over Dober.

“Silva might not have had the power of his opponent, but he had a speed advantage and the ability to counter Dober well. Silva’s spinning techniques and elbows did a lot of damage, leaving Dober with a massive gash over his right eyebrow, which led to the fight being stopped late in the third stanza.

“Silva is 3-0 since he joined the UFC with all his wins coming by knockout. Each of those victories has come in 2024.”

During the UFC 314 press conference, Silva seemed to get under Mitchell’s skin, first by bringing a globe to the event to poke fun at Mitchell’s flat earth beliefs and then by leading a profane chant against his opponent.

Silva does not appear in the UFC rankings. A win over Mitchell at UFC 314 will change that.

Silva opened as a big -350 favorite over Mitchell, who opened at +260. Bettors have shifted that line. Today, Silva is -225, while Mitchell comes in at +185. Fifty-eight percent of the bets are on Silva to win, while 71 percent of the money is on a Mitchell upset.

The betting pick is Silva to win via knockout, but there is betting value in picking Mitchell to win via submission.

UFC 314 Fight Card: Betting Odds, Line Movement And Predictions – Yair Rodriguez vs. Patricio “Pitbull” Freire

Yair Rodriguez (19-5-0-1) joined the UFC in 2014 with a win over Leonardo Morales. The decision victory made Rodriguez the winner of The Ultimate Fighter: Latin America featherweight tournament.

Over the next two years, Rodriguez went 5-0, picking up victories over Charles Rosa, Dan Hooker, Andre Fili, Alex Caceres, and B.J. Penn. During that stretch, Rodriguez picked up four fight-night bonus awards. His winning ways earned him the No. 7 spot in the official UFC featherweight rankings and a fight against ex-UFC lightweight champion Frankie Edgar on the pay-per-view portion of the UFC 211 fight card.

Edgar put a beating on Rodriguez that night at American Airlines Center in Dallas, Texas, closing Rodriguez’s left eye by the end of the second round. Despite Rodriguez’s complaints, the doctor waved off the fight before the third round could begin.

Rodriguez bounced back from that loss with two memorable wins, which bookended a no-contest. In November 2018, Rodriguez picked up “Performance of the Night” and “Fight of the Night” bonuses for his spectacular, literal, last-second knockout of the Korean Zombie. Then, in October 2029, he won a “Fight of the Night” decision over Jeremy Stephens after their first meeting ended in a no contest after an accidental eye poke left Stephens unable to continue.

That brief run kept Rodriguez highly ranked in the featherweight division at No. 3, which put him in a UFC Fight Night main event against former UFC kingpin Max Holloway in November 2021. That night, Rodriguez and Holloway engaged in a spirited five-round clash at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas, earning “Fight of the Night” honors. However, it was Holloway who took home the decision win.

Rodriguez did not stay down for long. In his next outing he earned an injury TKO over Brian Ortega, setting him up to face Josh Emmett for the interim UFC featherweight crown at UFC 284 in Perth, Australia. Rodriguez picked up his fifth career submission win in that outing, stopping Emmett in the second round.

Rodriguez failed to unify the featherweight titles in July 2023 when Alexander Volkanovski knocked him out in the third round of their UFC 290 battle.

Most recently, Ortega submitted Rodriguez in the third round of their rematch in February of last year.

The 32-year-old Rodriguez is on the first two-fight losing skid of his career. He is the No. 5 fighter in the official UFC featherweight rankings.

Freire (36-7) spent the bulk of his career under the Bellator banner. He made his promotional debut on the Bellator 15 card in April 2010. Freire first fought for the Bellator featherweight belt in 2013, losing by decision to Pat Curran. He got his revenge on Curran in September 2014, winning the belt via decision.

Freire defended his title twice before dropping a decision to Daniel Straus in November 2015. He regained the belt in 2017, submitting Straus via guillotine. Freire defended the title twice before adding the Bellator lightweight title to his trophy case.

Freire’s May 2019 TKO win over Michael Chandler earned him the Bellator 155-pound belt.

Freire defended his featherweight crown three times as a two-division champ before losing a July 2021 submission to A.J. McKee. He never put the lightweight belt up for grabs, vacating the title in October 2021.

The featherweight crown returned to Freire’s mantle in April 2022 when he defeated McKee via decision. Freire defended the belt twice in his third stint as the 145-pound champ. His most recent fight was a March 2024 TKO win over Jeremy Kennedy in a title defense.

Freire also dropped to bantamweight for a 2023 title shot against Sergio Pettis. Pettis won that contest via decision.

In December, Freire told MMA Junkie he wanted to be done with Bellator, which the PFL purchased in November 2023.

The odds on this contest have held as well. Rodriguez is the -200 favorite over the +165 Freire.

Freire has 58 percent of the bets, while Rodriguez has 61 percent of the money coming in on him.

Freire has the type of style that can break a fighter like Rodriguez, but the issue with that is this fight is a three-rounder, and I don’t think Freire will accomplish that goal in 15 minutes. If this bout were a five-rounder, I might have a different opinion. The betting pick is Rodriguez to win via decision, but there is value in picking Freire.

UFC 314 Fight Card: Betting Odds, Line Movement And Predictions – Nikita Krylov Vs. Dominick Reyes

A light heavyweight matchup opens the UFC 314 PPV card. In that contest, Nikita Krylov opened as the -190 favorite over the +155 Dominick Reyes. Those odds have held as fight night approaches.

Reyes has more bets (64 percent) and money on him (52 percent) ahead of the PPV card.

The pick is for the fight to end via a knockout with Krylov getting the win.

*odds via BetMGM

UFC 314 Popular Prop Bets To Consider

Paddy Pimblett by Decision/Tech Decision +1000

Paddy Pimblett by Submission +200

Diego Lopes by KO/TKO or DQ +300

Bryce Mitchell by Submission +650

Michael Chandler by KO/TKO or DQ +250

*via BetMGM

UFC 314 Fight Card: Date

Saturday, April 12, 2025

UFC 314 Fight Card: Location

Kaseya Center in Miami, Florida

UFC 314 Fight Card: How To Watch Or Stream

Main Card: ESPN+ PPV

Preliminary Card: ESPN

Early Preliminary Card: ESPN+

UFC 314 Fight Card: Fight Card Time

Early Prelims: 6:00 p.m. ET

Prelims: 8:00 p.m. ET

Main Card: 10:00 p.m. ET

Stay tuned for more coverage from the UFC 314 fight card. On fight night we will have live UFC 314 results, reactions, recaps and video highlights.