Chicago Cubs’ Kyle Tucker watches his single as he runs to first base during the first inning of a … More
Kyle Tucker is off to a hot start in his first season with the Chicago Cubs. He’s reminding us that he’s one of the best players in MLB, and he’s going to get paid accordingly this winter as the top free agent on the market.
In yesterday’s 2-1 win over the San Diego Padres, Tucker singled twice in five plate appearances and stole his fourth base of the season. That would be a good day for most players, but it actually brought his on-base percentage down to .427 and his slugging percentage dropped to .600. He has five home runs so far and leads MLB in walks with 16.
Since Vladimir Guerrero Jr. signed an extension to stay with the Toronto Blue Jays, Tucker is unquestionably the best player expected to reach free agency after this season. The 28-year-old right fielder is a career .276/.356/.519 hitter over eight seasons with a 141 OPS+, indicating his total offense has been 41% better than the league average over his career. He’s a three-time All-Star who has won a Silver Slugger and a Gold Glove.
Tucker was off to an MVP-caliber start last season before a leg injury took him out of action. In 78 games, he hit .289/.408/.585 with 23 home runs and 11 stolen bases in as many attempts. He was worth 4.7 WAR (Baseball-Reference version) in a half season of playing time.
The Houston Astros sent him to Chicago in one of the more high-profile transactions of the offseason. Houston received infielder Isaac Paredes and prospect Cam Smith in return. Neither has the capability of Tucker, but the star outfielder is in his final year of arbitration eligibility.
Tucker is earning $16.5 million this season, and his salary next year will more than double that amount. Juan Soto raised the bar for elite free agents this past winter when he signed a 15-year, $765 million contract worth an average of $51 million per year. Tucker isn’t quite at Soto’s level as a hitter—though he’s not far off—but he’s a better fielder and baserunner. Tucker will be entering his age-29 season as becomes a free agent whereas Soto was 26. The age difference makes it nearly impossible for him to reach the total value of Soto’s deal, but a bidding war could put his average annual value in reach.
Another reference point for Tucker’s contract demand is Guerrero’s extension. He signed a 14-year, $500 million deal earlier this month. Guerrero is two years younger than Tucker, but as a first baseman, he plays a less valuable defensive position. He also has a less consistent track record as a hitter.
His former Astros teammate Alex Bregman signed a three-year, $120 million deal with two opt-outs with the Boston Red Sox this offseason. Tucker will surely seek to surpass Bregman’s $40 million average annual value and contract length, especially if he continues to rake the way he has with the Cubs so far.
Kyle Tucker will most likely aim for the same $500 million guarantee that Guerrero received, but a 14-year deal is out of the question since he will be turning 29. $500 million over 12 years would have an average annual value of $41.7 million, which would top Bregman’s salary. That seems like his most likely contract demand relative to recent market history, and with as well as he plays, he should be able to find a team to meet it.
