Topline
The value of U.S. gold futures rose to a record high Friday, after the Trump administration tacked on “surprise” tariffs that some economists warned could disrupt global bullion trade.
One analyst said the Trump administration tacking on new tariffs was “precisely what the market feared.”
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Key Facts
U.S. gold futures, often relied on by investors to hedge positions, rose to an all-time high of just over $3,534 per troy ounce on the New York Mercantile Exchange early Friday.
Gold’s latest rally follows a Financial Times report on Thursday indicating Customs and Border Protection would hit one-kilo and 100-ounce gold bars with President Donald Trump’s tariffs, citing a ruling letter by the agency dated July 31.
When Trump announced his “Liberation Day” tariffs on U.S. trade partners in April, the White House noted that “bullion” would be exempt from his tariffs and any reciprocal levies, though it’s not immediately clear why the trade policy was altered.
One-kilo bars are the most common form of gold traded on Comex, the world’s largest gold futures market, with a majority coming from Switzerland, the world’s largest gold refiner and a major gold exporter to the U.S. that now faces U.S. tariffs of 39%.
“This is precisely what the market feared,” UBS analyst Joni Teves wrote in a note Friday while calling tariffs on gold a “huge surprise,” suggesting it “remains to be seen” whether the policy revision would “eventually be amended.”
CBP did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
Big Number
$61.5 billion. That’s the value of gold exported from Switzerland to the U.S. over a 12-month period ending in June, the most of any country, according to federal data.
Why Are Gold Prices Surging This Year?
Gold prices—up 30% on the year—surpassed the $3,000 threshold for the first time in March, the latest milestone for the metal after crossing $2,000 during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and $1,000 during a financial crisis in 2008. Goldman Sachs commodities strategist Lina Thompson wrote in a February note that gold would ride a “potentially persistent boost from elevated U.S. policy uncertainty” as Trump and the Federal Reserve clashed over interest rates and as Trump implemented his tariffs.
Surprising Fact
Wall Street didn’t expect gold’s value to surge so high this year: Analysts at JPMorgan Chase forecast a $2,950 price target for the end of the year in February, falling lower than end-of-year projections of $3,000 by Citigroup and Goldman Sachs signaling a $3,000 price target by the middle of 2026.
Key Background
Swiss leadership has criticized Trump’s levies on the country, as Swiss President Karin Keller-Sutter argued the tariffs created an “extraordinarily difficult situation.” Keller-Sutter arrived in Washington, D.C., earlier this week in a bid to lower Trump’s tariffs. Before her visit, Trump described his previous conversation with Keller-Sutter: “The woman was nice, but she didn’t want to listen.” He noted Switzerland earns “a fortune” from pharmaceutical exports and warned of incoming drug tariffs “within the next week or so.”
