Topline
Millions have been wagered across betting sites like Polymarket and Kalshi on who will become the next pope—though bettors appear to be placing their wagers blindly, as the papal conclave is completely cut off from the outside world and not even Vatican experts can confidently predict who will become Pope Francis’ successor.
Cardinals gathered at the Sistine Chapel Wednesday to elect a new pope. (Photo by Christopher … More
Key Facts
Bettors have wagered more than $21 million on Polymarket, an offshore cryptocurrency-based betting site, and $8 million on Kalshi, a prediction market platform legally authorized to accept bets in the U.S., on who will be the next pope.
Both Polymarket and Kalshi have the same cardinal in the lead: Pietro Parolin of Italy, the Vatican secretary of state who is generally considered more moderate than the liberal-leaning Francis and has been noted by papal experts as a likely candidate.
As of Wednesday afternoon, Parolin is the favorite, with a 31% chance on Polymarket of winning the papacy and a 32% chance on Kalshi.
On both platforms, Luis Antonio Tagle, a liberal-leaning cardinal from the Philippines who has drawn comparisons to Francis, ranks second behind Parolin, with 20% odds on Polymarket and a 21% chance on Kalshi.
Italians Matteo Zuppi and Pierbattista Pizzaballa, also considered by experts to be possible candidates, rank third (9%) and fourth (8%) on Polymarket, while their positions are swapped on Kalshi.
Ghana’s Peter Turkson ranks fifth on Polymarket with 7% odds, while Hungary’s Peter Erdo ranks fifth on Kalshi with a 7% chance.
Who Do Experts Think Will Be The Next Pope?
Vatican experts say there is no single frontrunner to become pope, though there are several cardinals seen as favorites. This papal election is especially difficult to predict, experts have said, because the conclave is the largest and most globally diverse ever, largely because Francis appointed more than 100 cardinals from countries underrepresented in the church, who are eligible to participate in the conclave. “It’s really a much more complicated chemistry this time, because also there’s a very complicated international situation which affects different cardinals, different local churches in different ways,” Villanova University theology professor Massimo Faggioli told NPR. Many of the names experts have singled out as frontrunners are among those leading the betting odds—including Parolin, Tagle, Zuppi and Pizzaballa.
When Will The New Pope Be Chosen?
The conclave began Wednesday at the Sistine Chapel—it’s unclear how long the conclave will take, though all recent conclaves have taken two to three days. One vote will be cast Wednesday, the first day of the conclave, and four votes will be cast in each succeeding day until one candidate garners the necessary two-thirds majority to win. Once votes are tallied, black smoke will be emitted from the Sistine Chapel if the necessary majority was not achieved, while white smoke indicates a pope has been chosen.
Key Background
Betting platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi became prominent during the 2024 presidential election. On Polymarket alone, more than $3.6 billion was bet on the outcome of the election, which largely had President Donald Trump in the lead, though former Vice President Kamala Harris occasionally passed Trump in the odds for brief periods early in her campaign. Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan, who noted Polymarket also correctly predicted Mark Carney would become Canada’s next prime minister, touted Polymarket as “the most accurate source of information on the internet” in a post on X.
Further Reading
Conclave Begins Today: What To Know About Secretive Election For Next Pope (Forbes)
