One might forgive the Federal Reserve Board if it just declared victory over inflation at its meeting this week.
Don’t bet on it. The Fed is obsessed with inflation, which hit 9% in the summer of 2022 and has come down substantially since then.
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The Fed, led by Chairman Jerome Powell, wants to see inflation drop to 2%, even if it is an arbitrary number — formulated by New Zealand’s central bank 30 years ago. U.S. inflation is hovering just below 3%.
Many investors are worried that current inflation indicators suggest getting it to 2% may take longer than anyone wants — especially Donald Trump.
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Powell is one who has cautioned patience on rate cuts. The economy is very strong, he told attendees at The New York Times Dealbook Summit on Dec. 5, and, he added, the Fed “can afford to be more cautious as it lowers rates.”
The conundrum will color the Fed’s December meeting. It starts Tuesday and ends Wednesday when the Fed is expected to cut its current key federal funds rate to 4.25% to 4.5% from 4.5% to 4.75%. It had been as high as 5.25% to 5.5% as late as the fall of 2023.
The federal funds rate is what short-term rates in the United States are built on.
The worry for Wall Street and investors around the world is this: Will Powell announce the Fed is pausing rate cuts to hasten inflation’s march to 2%? An announcement could be part of the Fed’s post-meeting statement or during Powell’s news conference afterward.
Powell does have a problem with rates. The Fed has been cutting the Fed’s key rates. But, if anything, the bond markets have boosted the cost of money at the same time.
A pause on rate cuts has big risks. It could stall the big stock market rally that erupted with Trump’s Nov. 5 election. It could enrage the President-elect.
The S&P 500 is up nearly 27% in 2024 on top of a 22.4% gain in 2023. The Nasdaq’s gain 32.7% gain on the year is after a 43.4% romp in 2023.
The history suggests two years of big gains beget a third year. Especially if one believes artificial intelligence really is a revolution.
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And years ending in five are good for markets, too. If investors are confident about the Fed and rates.
If interest rates don’t suddenly shoot higher.
And all this along with the great excitement about over-the-top earnings from chipmaker Broadcom (AVGO) , whose shares jumped 24% Friday after reporting a 51% revenue increase. Its market capitalization topped $1 trillion for the first time, the eighth company to reach that level.
