Overseas markets are being blasted by Trump tariff worries today. Momentum names such as Nvidia (NVDA) and Tesla (TSLA) are getting slammed premarket. And US markets are taking it on the chin in premarket trading.
It’s shaping up to be a week, as si would say.
To that end, Goldman’s chief US equity strategist David Kostin cut his three-month and 12-month return forecasts for the S&P 500 (^GSPC) by 5% and 6%, respectively. That would put the S&P 500 at 5,300 in three months, and 5,900 in 12 months.
“Slowing growth and rising uncertainty warrant a higher equity risk premium and lower valuation multiples for equities,” Kostin said.
The team at HSBC is out this morning with a warning that the sell-off in stocks is likely to persist.
Meanwhile, Kostin’s counterpart on the economics team at Goldman — Jan Hatzius — on Monday lifted his recession probability estimate to 35%, from 20% previously.
