The US Department of Energy (DOE) released a report Monday warning that power outages could increase one hundredfold by 2030 due to increased energy demands and insufficient additions of firm generating capacity.
The “Report on Strengthening US Grid Reliability and Security” fulfills a directive from President Trump’s April 2025 executive order and outlines a uniform methodology for identifying at-risk regions and guiding emergency federal intervention. The report warns that plant retirements, delays in approving infrastructure investments, and rapid demand growth from AI and manufacturing are putting the nation’s grid at risk of widespread reliability issues.
“This report affirms what we already know: The United States cannot afford to continue down the unstable and dangerous path of energy subtraction previous leaders pursued,” Energy Secretary Chris Wright said in a statement provided to Breitbart News. “If we are going to keep the lights on, win the AI race, and keep electricity prices from skyrocketing, the United States must unleash American energy.”
According to the DOE’s modeling, allowing 104 GW of reliable generation such as coal and gas plants to retire by 2030 without replacements already in place would trigger a surge in power outages across the country. Annual outage hours could skyrocket from the current single digits to over 800 hours per year, leaving millions of Americans vulnerable.
While over 200 GW of new generation is planned, the report finds that only 22 GW currently qualifies as firm baseload power. The remaining additions, largely composed of intermittent sources, are insufficient to meet consumer and business needs when demand peaks.
“The magnitude and speed of projected load growth cannot be met with existing approaches,” the report states. “Radical change is needed.”
Since President Trump issued Executive Order 14262 in April, the DOE has taken multiple actions to strengthen grid reliability. The order directed the Department to streamline emergency energy orders and prevent the retirement of critical power assets. In the months since, the agency has issued numerous 202(c) emergency directives to prevent outages in Pennsylvania, Michigan, North Carolina, and Puerto Rico.
The July 7 report is the first product of the administration’s new uniform methodology mandated under Trump’s order. It identifies regions most vulnerable to blackouts and quantifies how much firm capacity is needed to restore full grid security.
Nick Elliot, director of the Grid Deployment Office, emphasized the broader national stakes in a press call Monday morning: “The President has talked extensively about and campaigned on an affordable, reliable grid. Winning the AI race is really, really important to him and really important for everything from national security to everything we do.”
Energy demand is rising at a pace not seen in decades, largely fueled by AI, data centers, electrification, and manufacturing. Though while data centers can be built in 18 months, it can take more than five years to bring new generation online.
Grid operators from across the country including PJM, MISO, and ERCOT have issued warnings about capacity shortfalls, with some declaring Energy Emergency Alerts earlier this summer.
In remarks accompanying the report, DOE officials criticized the energy policies of past administrations for forcing the closure of firm generation like coal and natural gas while promoting intermittent renewables that cannot meet 24/7 demand.
“Old tools won’t solve new problems,” the report concludes. It calls for modern methods that incorporate the frequency, magnitude, and duration of power outages, move beyond peak-load analysis, and account for increasing shared reliance on neighboring grids.
The Trump administration has launched efforts to expand firm energy capacity, streamline permitting, and prevent premature plant retirements. DOE officials have emphasized the need for a shift away from renewable energy schemes to ensuring grid reliability and keeping the lights on nationwide.
