FILE – Houston Astros’ Kyle Tucker tosses his bat after hitting a home run against the Minnesota … [+]
The Cubs addressed a significant area of need on Friday, completing a four-player deal for Astros outfielder Kyle Tucker. In return, the Cubs are sending Isaac Paredes, Hayden Wesneski, and prospect Cam Smith to Houston.
The trade, according to multiple reports, will bring Chicago a much-needed left-handed power bat. The Cubs ranked 21st in baseball with 170 home runs and 17th in slugging percentage (.393) in 2024. In 78 games last season, Tucker hit 23 home runs; as a team, the Cubs had just one player — Ian Happ — who hit at least that many across a full season. Tucker also posted a 4.7 WAR, higher than any Cubs player.
There should be little question as to whether this is a smart move for the Cubs for 2025. They lose third baseman Paredes in the deal, but they should have in-house options to replace him. For a team that has had consecutive 83-win seasons, they needed to make a bold move, and this is arguably the right one. The trade for Tucker probably precedes another move to make room among the outfield corps (Cody Bellinger has been expected to be traded since the offseason started, and he is rumored to be a Yankees target), which would all but cement him as the Cubs’ right fielder next season.
Looking at where Tucker will put the Cubs in 2025, there is a lot to like about this trade. But hanging over news of the deal is the reality that Tucker is set to become an unrestricted free agent in 2026, and he has said he intends on testing free agency. He will still be under 30 years old at that time, and if he continues on the trajectory that has earned him three All-Star nods in a row, Tucker will rightly command a lot of attention on the free agent market.
In short, the Cubs have potentially swapped players (Paredes and Smith) who could help them beyond 2025 for one who will almost certainly make them better next year, but maybe only for next year. It’s similar to the Yankees and Juan Soto, and there are reasons to be okay with it from both perspectives.
On one hand, the Cubs have to take a step forward. Team president Jed Hoyer has only one year left on his contract, and another middling season isn’t going to cut it. A playoff berth does not necessarily guarantee him an extension, but it helps his case whatever direction Hoyer goes. Either he has a better chance at staying in Chicago, or he’s a more appealing target for another organization. From the fan perspective, the frustration is heavy with a team that has not made the playoffs since 2020 and hasn’t won a playoff game since 2017. Watching a team that is realistically in the playoff conversation in 2025 might be worth losing Tucker after just one year. It’s a “win now” move that fans have been asking for.
But from the other perspective, it might not be a move that is good for the team in the long term. Paredes is only 25, and his absence opens up a hole at third base. The Cubs have in-house options like their number-one ranked prospect Matt Shaw, but he has no major league experience yet. Expecting him to come up and produce at a level commensurate with what Paredes would potentially have given the Cubs in ‘25 might not be realistic. And Cam Smith, the prospect included in the trade, was their first-round draft pick this year and is already ranked seventh in the Cubs’ system. He batted .313 across three pro levels after being drafted, reaching Double-A Tennessee. Either, or both, of those players could realistically have helped the Cubs toward long-term success.
The problem with that argument, however, is that at some point an organization has to make a move like what the Cubs did on Friday. In sports, constantly building for the future means not ever reaching it. If all the Cubs did was keep stockpiling prospects and maintaining a payroll that stays under the luxury tax, they would perpetually struggle to keep up with clubs like the Mets and Dodgers who have cast aside payroll concerns. Trading for Kyle Tucker isn’t exactly pushing all of their chips in and by itself won’t put the Cubs at the same level as New York and Los Angeles, but it’s a step in that direction.
This doesn’t have to be an either-or proposition, though. The Cubs could have Tucker to help them win in 2025 and extend him in order to keep their competitive window open for longer than just one year. He will be expensive to lock down to an extension — it won’t be cheap to convince him to turn down the chance to test free agency in a market that just gave Soto $765 million — but the Cubs have the resources. They are estimated to have a $194 million payroll in 2025, according to Roster Resource, and their tax space will jump from about $70 million next year to $75 million in 2026. If the Cubs do trade Bellinger, that will free up even more room financially.
There is plenty of reason to like the Cubs’ trade for Kyle Tucker, even if it could hurt a little beyond 2025 because they are a team that needs to take a step forward, and he will help them do that. And there’s also plenty of reason to think they can have the best of both worlds and extend the 27-year-old on a long-term contract.
