TOKYO, JAPAN – MARCH 16: Pete Crow-Armstrong #4 of the Chicago Cubs reacts after stealing the third … [+]
Chicago fans know it’s rarely safe to trust the Cubs. But the team that faces Shohei Ohtani on Wednesday morning in Tokyo looks capable of building belief in the upcoming summer, thanks to a lineup that should be the most reliable in the National League Central.
Jed Hoyer, in search of a contract extension in his role as president of baseball operations, has constructed a roster in workman-like fashion through free agency and trades.
Beginning with the addition of Seiya Suzuki in 2022 and Dansby Swanson a year later, along with extensions to hold onto Ian Happ and Nico Hoerner, Hoyer laid the foundation for a team that Baseball Prospectus’ Pecota rankings project to win 92 games, which is 12 more than projected division runner-up Milwaukee. Right fielder Kyle Tucker, a three-time All-Star, provides new sizzle after being acquired from Houston in a win-now trade but the reasons to respect this team go a lot deeper.
Craig Counsell, who was second in NL Manager of the Year voting four times while in Milwaukee, has overseen an idyllic training camp in Arizona.
Suzuki’s initial opposition to being used as a designated hitter was shown to be a tempest in a teacup, as Suzuki has worked to adjust to his new role after an early suggestions he preferred to be traded. Ryan Pressly, who saved 14 postseason games before the Astros handed his job to Josh Hader, quietly threw well as he got to know Miguel Amaya. The team’s key ingredients avoided extended stays in the trainer’s room, although Hoerner was predictably held over in Arizona as he recovers from the flexor tendon surgery he had in October.
For the first time since 2015, the Cubs are also confidently looking to a large group of young newcomers. Pete Crow-Armstrong and Matt Shaw, both in their age-23 seasons, will open the year in center field and at third base, respectively. Right-hander Porter Hodge, 24, is poised to work high-leverage innings alongside Pressly in a bullpen that has only one lefty, Caleb Thielbar.
Crow-Armstrong, acquired from the Mets in the 2021 Javier Baez trade, was extremely solid in 123 games as a rookie. The left-handed batter hit .237 while stealing 27 bases and delivering +11 Defensive Runs Saved in center field, giving him a 2.7 fWAR.
That may have been the tip of the iceberg for the flashy Crow-Armstrong, who paints stars onto the top of his shaved head. He hit .283 with 20 home runs and 37 stolen bases between Double-A and Triple-A in 2023, and crushed the ball this spring (.519 with 3 homers in 10 games).
Shaw, the Cubs’ first-round pick in the 2023 draft, is a pure hitter from the right side. He has hit .303 with 29 homers and 46 stolen bases in 159 games as a pro, continuing the success he had at the University of Maryland. He starred for Team USA at the Premier 12 event last fall, driving in 14 runs in 34 at-bats.
At 5-9, 185 pounds, he’s built like a second baseman but fit into the lineup at third base. The Cubs will not be surprised if he has a career like Ron Cey, who hit 20-plus home runs in 17 seasons at third base, making four trips to the World Series. Cey was listed at 5-10, 185. Shaw missed time early in camp with a strained oblique but played well enough in six recent games to earn a spot on the team charter to Tokyo.
Hodge, a 13th-round pick from a Utah high school in 2019, has seemed unflappable since the Cubs promoted him last May. He compiled a 1.88 ERA in 39 appearances, using a 96-mph fastball and a wipeout sweeper for a 31.7 K-rate. His sweeper held opponents to an .070 batting average, with 51.8 percent swing-and-misses.
The Cubs’ starting rotation looks solid with Shoto Imanaga, Justin Steele and Jameson Taillon followed by two veterans with something to prove, lefty Matthew Boyd and right-hander Colin Rea. Javier Assad, a valuable swing man if not a full-time starter, is working his way back from a strained oblique early in camp.
Win or lose in Japan against the Dodgers’ Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Ohtani and Roki Sasaki, the Cubs should have Wrigley Field buzzing all season. That’s a good thing for baseball.
