CLN
In yesterday’s webinar, which you can watch here, we addressed a rumor that U.S.-listed China stocks could be delisted. In December 2020, the Holding Foreign Companies Accountable Act was passed to address the long-running issue of China’s law preventing the Public Company Accounting Oversight Board from accessing U.S.-listed stocks’ auditor books.
While we considered the delisting a low probability because U.S. investors, rather than Chinese investors, own the U.S.-listed Chinese stocks, we converted the U.S. shares to Hong Kong shares in stocks like Alibaba, JD.com, Baidu, and Trip.com, which offer sufficient liquidity in Hong Kong. Another ~16% of the holdings could be converted but haven’t, as the Hong Kong shares exist, but volumes are light in comparison to the U.S.
There are two worthwhile holdings that don’t have a Hong Kong listing: Full Truck Alliance and Pinduoduo. At the time, Full Truck filed for a Hong Kong listing but pulled the filing after the Chinese government changed its law to allow the PCAOB access. The PCAOB met the US-listed Chinese stocks’ auditors, which are local arms of KPMG, EY, Deloitte, and PWC, and determined the auditors were doing their jobs. The SEC removed the delisting risk with the below statement, which can be found here. It stated:
PCAOB
We also stated our belief that the age of China disinformation was coming to an end as we are no longer reliant on the media, U.S. government, or unnamed “sources” due to data sources like ChatGPT, DeepSeek, and Perplexity, which easily refute inaccuracies.
In the last half hour of trading yesterday, a post on X from Fox Business reporter Charles Gasparino stated according to his unnamed “sources,” the U.S.-listed China stocks could be delisted for several reasons. The timing at the very end of trading was deliberate and suspicious as investors fired first/asked questions later. If he had done so early in the trading day, its inaccuracies could have been refuted. The U.S.-China ADRs are owned by U.S. investors and the Chinese government. While the Chinese government doesn’t care if the U.S. government decides to vaporize U.S. investors’ capital, they likely will care if Chinese companies are being singled out. The escalation of the goods trade war, not services as the U.S. is the largest services exporter, to the financial markets would be deemed by the Chinese government an escalation. The US capital markets are the largest globally due to the rule of law and lack of capital controls. The X post doesn’t mention the Variable Interest Entity structure of U.S. listed China ADRs though the VIE structure was created to by U.S. and global private equity investors to invest in Chinese technology companies when Chinese law prevented them. The private equity structure became public equity when the companies went. The VIE is structure is not unique to the U.S. as companies listed in HK and mainland China that were backed by U.S. and global private equity go public there.
To educate yourself on VIEs please click here to read our article from 2022.
On behalf of our shareholders, we will fight this misinformation.
Week in Review
- Asian equities were mostly lower for the week as Australia and Japan outperformed, while Hong Kong and Mainland China, which had a shortened week due to the Qing Ming Festival on Monday, underperformed.
- This week saw a massive $10.5 billion worth of net buying of Hong Kong-listed stocks and ETFs by Mainland investors via Southbound Stock Connect on the tariff-induced pullback.
- As global markets continued to be rattled by US import tariffs, China implemented an 84% tariff on imports from the US; China’s Ministry of Commerce (MoC) and Ministry of Foreign Affairs said that China “will not back down” but left room for negotiations, and China’s economic officials said that the levies will be also be followed up with domestic consumer stimulus.
- In our latest video, KraneShares’ Xiabing Su explores Jingdezhen, the historic porcelain capital of China with over 1,000 years of ceramic heritage.
Key News
Asia ended a volatile week mixed as Hong Kong, Taiwan, Vietnam, and India outperformed, and Japan and Singapore were off.
CNH, China’s currency that trades during U.S. hours, had a very strong day, indicating the government is defending the currency from depreciation, as it closed at 7.42 CNH per USD Tuesday from last Monday’s 7.26 to today’s 7.29 (CNH is quoted USD/CNH, so higher prices mean deprecation/lower prices appreciation versus the US dollar). Maybe Chinese entities are selling U.S. assets like U.S. Treasuries and converting them back to Renminbi? It is impossible to know, but if so, they aren’t alone, as the US dollar is weaker against many currencies as investors vote with their feet. Remember, capital flows to where it is treated best.
Near the end of the trading day, the Chinese government raised its tariff on U.S. imports to 125% from 84% after the U.S. raised its tariff. I wonder what poker expert and psychologist Annie Duke would say about China increasing its tariffs despite the U.S. saying China’s economy is dependent on the U.S.? As our webinar yesterday stated, China is far less dependent on the U.S. than is thought here.
Both Hong Kong and Mainland China opened lower but moved from the lower left to the upper right across the trading day on decent volume and breadth. National Team ETFs did not have very high volumes today, though Southbound Stock Connect saw a solid $1.51 billion worth of net buying of Hong Kong-listed stocks from Mainland investors.
Hong Kong and China-listed semiconductors had a very strong day, led by the Hong Kong-listed Semiconductor Manufacturing (SMIC), which gained +5.9%, and Hua Hong Semiconductor, which gained +14.07% after the China Semiconductor Industry Association announced an integrated circuit’s origin would be based on where the wafer was made.
Mainland China and Hong Kong-listed autos also had a good day as the EU and China are in talks on reducing tariffs on imports.
Spain’s Prime Minister met with President Xi as both stated that there are no winners in a trade war. Hong Kong-listed internet stocks were mixed, as Tencent fell -0.31%, Alibaba fell -1.72%, Meituan fell -1.31%, and Trip.com fell -4.6%. It is difficult to say whether the ADR delisting rumor weighed on sentiment.
More importantly, JD.com gained +0.99% stated after the close, it would help export-focused manufacturers sell to domestic Chinese consumers. It is committing to the sale of RMB 200B ($28b) of goods that would have been sold overseas to be sold in China. This is another strong signal of the coming domestic consumption push with others to follow.
The Hang Seng and Hang Seng Tech indexes gained +1.13% and +1.80%, respectively, on volume that decreased -30% from yesterday, which is 158% of the 1-year average. 335 stocks advanced, while 137 stocks declined. Main Board short turnover decreased -45.15% from yesterday, which is 160% of the 1-year average, as 16% of turnover was short turnover (Hong Kong short turnover includes ETF short volume, which is driven by market makers’ ETF hedging). Growth, momentum, and large caps outperformed value and small caps. All sectors were positive, except for Utilities, which fell -0.19%. The top-performing sectors were Healthcare, which gained +4.72%; Materials, which gained +3.80%; and Information Technology, which gained +3.19%. The top-performing subsectors were semiconductors, autos, and non-ferrous metals. Meanwhile, real estate investment trusts (REITs), consumer discretionary distribution services, and commercial & professional services were among the worst-performing subsectors. Southbound Stock Connect volumes were 3X pre-stimulus, September levels, as Mainland investors bought a net $1.51 billion worth of Hong Kong-listed stocks and ETFs, including Alibaba, CNOOC, Hua Hong Semiconductor, Meituan, Xiaomi, XPeng, and SMIC. Tencent was a slight net sell.
Shanghai, Shenzhen, and STAR Board gained +0.45%, +0.72%, and +2.07%, respectively, on volume that decreased -16.17% from yesterday, which is 111% of the 1-year average. 3,581 stocks advanced, while 1,382 stocks declined. Growth and small-cap stocks outperformed value and large-cap stocks. The top-performing sectors were Information Technology, which gained +2.81%; Consumer Discretionary, which gained +1.76%; and Industrials, which gained +0.97%. Meanwhile, the worst-performing sectors were Real Estate, which fell -0.99%; Energy, which fell -0.79%; and Communication Services, which fell -0.45%. The top-performing subsectors were semiconductors, precious metals, and autos. Meanwhile, agriculture, food, and telecom were among the worst-performing subsectors. Northbound Stock Connect volumes were above average. CNY and the Asia Dollar Index both rose versus the US dollar. Treasury bonds were flat. Copper and steel rose.
New Content
Read our latest article:
New Drivers For China Healthcare: AI Med-Tech Innovation, Cancer Treatment, & Favorable Balance of Trade
Please click here to read
Last Night’s Performance
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Last Night’s Exchange Rates, Prices, & Yields
- CNY per USD 7.32 versus 7.32 yesterday
- CNY per EUR 8.10 versus 8.10 yesterday
- Yield on 10-Year Government Bond 1.64% versus 1.64% yesterday
- Yield on 10-Year China Development Bank Bond 1.71% versus 1.71% yesterday
- Copper Price +1.94%
- Steel Price +1.50%
