Bitcoin has now spent four consecutive months under the $100,000 mark for the first time since it crossed the milestone back in 2024. This move signaled a return to the bear market, and the trend has persisted since then. Even now, sellers are more than likely still dominating the market, despite the market recovery. One crypto analyst notes an interesting trend concerning Bitcoin, suggesting that participation from smaller investors might be dying out.
Retail Investors Are Gone, And Bitcoin Could Be In Trouble
The recent Bitcoin downtrend has suggested a drying up of liquidity in the crypto market, and this is represented by the data showing a decline in participation from retail trades. In a chart shared by crypto analyst Crypto Tice, it showed that retail investment has plummeted since Bitcoin price hit its all-time high.
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The analyst highlights that transactions below $10,000 specifically have accounted for the majority of the decline. This means that retail investors, or smaller investors who are not institutions, are no longer putting money into the digital asset at the rate at which they were before.
This trend, the analyst explains, is a demand destruction and is often a predecessor of major Bitcoin bear markets in history. The trend has always been similar: first, retail leaves, and next, the volume begins dropping, and these are bear market signals.
If the analyst is right, then it means that the Bitcoin decline is far from over. As the crypto analyst explained, the data is “screaming” right now that a bear market is coming. Crypto Tice warns that this is the time to be cautious and not the time for “blind optimism”.
When Will The Bull Market Return?
Bull markets are often driven by an influx of liquidity, triggering a buying spree, and this is no different. Naturally, retail investors play a huge role in this, meaning their absence from the market often spells doom. As the analyst explains, until these retail investors return, then the Bitcoin price recoveries are likely to remain capped, meaning it has limited upside in the meantime.
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Going by the shared chart, retail investment will have to rise above 10% again in order to trigger another sustained run. In the last year, the highest level has been 30% at the start of 2025, which was a precursor to the Bitcoin price hitting multiple all-time highs. Thus, a return to this level could trigger the next major run, possibly move $100,000.
Featured image from Dall.E, chart from TradingView.com
