Philadelphia Phillies’ Aaron Nola plays during the second baseball game of a doubleheader Wednesday, … More
On the surface, things appear to be going swimmingly for the Philadelphia Phillies. After a weekend sweep of the Pittsburgh Pirates, they stand at 28-18, on the heels of the New York Mets in the NL East. A couple of recent events add unexpected stress to the club’s pitching staff, however.
The starting rotation, the team’s clear primary strength, will be hampered in the short term by the loss of Aaron Nola with a sprained right ankle. Perhaps even more importantly, their bullpen – clearly not an area of comparable depth – will be without their closer, Jose Alvarado for 80 games due to a suspension for use of external testosterone, a banned PED. Upon completion of his suspension, Alvarado will not be eligible for the 2025 playoffs, should the Phils qualify.
Let’s deal with Alvarado first. He’s saved their bacon early, as the newly acquired Jordan Romano got off to a dreadful start. While Romano has now gathered himself, at least temporarily, he is one of only three Philly relievers (along with Matt Strahm an Orion Kerkering) who can currently be trusted anywhere near the end of anything resembling a close game. Joe Ross isn’t bad himself, but is more a middle/long guy/spot starter candidate, and I’m already being charitable including Kerkering, who has a big arm but struggles to pitch with a downhill plane.
As good as the Phils’ rotation is, they simply must have more reliable arms in their pen, and find themselves in a bit of a bind regarding how to address this shortfall. Do they cycle through their existing group and some of their more experienced Triple-A guys to find a hot hand, or trade from their starting pitching surplus or the top of their stacked deck of prospects to land an impact reliever type like the Orioles’ Felix Bautista via trade?
While they may eventually be forced to go the latter route, I wouldn’t rush into it. Mick Abel looked great in his MLB debut on Sunday, perhaps raising his trade value to a level justifying a deal. With even better prospect Andrew Painter on the way, Abel could be the guy eventually moved. Honestly, that might be preferable to dealing one of their elite position player prospects, like SS/3B Aidan Miller, OF Justin Crawford or C Eduardo Tait. Perhaps moving down a tier to the likes of OF Gabriel Rincones might make a little more sense.
But back to Abel for a second. There’s no way he’s going anywhere at this very moment due to the loss of Nola. As bad as he’s been this season, Nola has arguably been the majors’ most consistent provider of innings bulk in recent memory. With his velocity down about one mph on all of his pitches this season, the club is hoping that a brief stint on the shelf will rejuvenate him and restore him to peak effectiveness.
I’m not necessarily buying that.
Nola supposedly first felt the pain in his ankle warming up for his next to last start against the Guardians. While that outing and the subsequent one versus the Cardinals were admittedly poor, he was no great shakes before then, either.
Looking at Nola’s performance thus far in 2025 compared to 2024, there are stark areas of similarity and difference. His K rate has barely moved, ticking downward from 24.0% to 23.6%, both within the league average range. His BB rate has nudged upward from 6.1% to 7.3%, moving up into the league average range. Notable, but still not a huge deal.
It’s on the contact management front where things have fallen apart. One of Nola’s issues in 2024 was a tendency to yield line drives, and that has intensified a but in 2025. He’s up from 21.7% to 22.3%, over a half standard deviation above league average. Line drive authority has become an issue as well this season, as his average liner exit speed is 94.7 mph, also well above league average. This has pushed his overall average exit speed allowed to 89.3 mph – only four 2024 NL ERA qualifiers fared worse. His Adjusted Contact Score was almost exactly league average at 98 in 2024; it sits at an abysmal 136 thus far in 2025.
When you break it down on a pitch-by-pitch basis it gets much more acute. Each season I issue pitch grades to the arsenals of every pitcher with 135 or more innings, based on bat-missing and contact management relative to the league. In 2024, Nola had a subpar changeup (“D+”), but three average or better pitches, including a pair of “A” offerings in his four-seamer and knuckle-curve. (His sinker earned a “B”.)
I don’t worry about starting pitchers until their fastball(s) go south. Nola’s four-seamer has utterly fallen apart this season. Last year, I didn’t issue an “F” grade to a single qualifying pitch – thus far in 2025, Nola’s four-seamer would earn an “F-”, if that’s even possible. A 209 Adjusted Contact Score and 4.5% pitch-specific whiff rate is no way to go through life. Even his signature knuckle-curve hasn’t been very good – he gets an interim “C” grade for it, again due to poor contact management (153 Adjusted Contact Score). His sinker again gets a “B”, eerily possessing the same 4.5% repeating-decimal whiff rate as the four-seamer.
One positive – Nola’s changeup has improved and become a viable pitch this season, improving to a “B” grade. Its whiff rate has exploded from 4.9% in 2024 to 18.0% this season. He has taken notice and begun to throw it more, with its usage rate increasing from 9.6% in 2024 to 14.8%. This increase has come at the expense of the knuckle-curve. If Nola sheds his skin and morphs into a different form, the changeup will be at the forefront of his efforts.
Is it possible that everything just clicks into place once Nola comes off of the injured list? I guess, but I wouldn’t bank on it. Nola was already becoming more a quantity rather than a quality guy entering this season, and such a decline in fastball effectiveness can be a bit scary. Once Felix Hernandez lost his fastball, things got hairy in a hurry.
A reliable Nola could be the key to the remainder of the Phils’ season. If they can count on him to take the ball and give them six competent innings every time out once he returns, they can better justify giving up a key piece or two to fill their bullpen needs. If they can’t, then there’s another hole in the dike that must be plugged. You don’t appreciate 200-inning workhorses until they’re gone.
