Ethereum (ETH) slid on Tuesday, trading just above $2,080 as the wider crypto market weakened — a level well shy of a critical threshold identified by expert Ali Martinez as the trigger for a sustained macro bull run.
In a breakdown shared on social media platform X, Martinez argued that reclaiming a realized price near $2,500 would mark the moment the average holder returns to profit and signal the end of the market’s “cooling period,” opening the door to a renewed, extended rally.
Technical Crossroads For Ethereum
Martinez framed the current price action in technical terms, suggesting Ethereum could be forming an ascending triangle. In that scenario, he places a “line in the sand” at roughly $1,800, and notes that this figure overlaps closely with the 0.80 MVRV pricing band at about $1,880.
MVRV, or Market Value to Realized Value, compares an asset’s market price with the average price paid for the asset by holders; Martinez describes the 0.80 band as an “Average Receipt” indicator that has historically marked cycle bottoms.
When the band is reached, he said, Ethereum and the broader cryptocurrency market is often in a state of “extreme pain,” a phase in which selling tends to exhaust itself and long-term holders step in.
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Beyond the ascending triangle scenario, Martinez acknowledged a more bearish alternative. If Ethereum’s price is actually confined within a parallel channel rather than an ascending triangle, he warned that a deeper reset is possible.
In that case, he is watching the channel’s outer limits at approximately $1,550 and $1,070. To support these observations, he pointed to the URPD — the UTXO Realized Price Distribution, a tool that maps the prices at which existing ETH last moved.
Martinez calls this distribution “the market’s memory,” because it identifies levels where large clusters of coins were acquired and where defending buy pressure is likely to appear.
$4,900 Near‑Term And $5,900 Longer‑Term
According to Martinez’s URPD read, the most significant buy walls below the 0.80 MVRV band are at roughly $1,584, $1,238, and $1,089. These price clusters, if tested, could generate meaningful support as holders who bought at those levels attempt to defend their positions.
Martinez believes accumulation is likely to occur in the “low‑thousands”; however, he asserted that the “start engine” for the next major upward leg is Ethereum reclaiming its realized price at $2,500.
If Ethereum can break and sustain above $2,500, Martinez says the technical and on‑chain signals would point toward a “target‑rich environment.”
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His analysis places a near-term upside toward $4,900— a level he ties to the structure of the ascending triangle — and ultimately toward the 2.40 MVRV band, near $5,900, which would represent a new all-time high for the Ethereum price.
Reaching those zones, in the expert’s view, would confirm that average holders are back in profit and that the market has shifted decisively from accumulation to a broader speculative phase.
Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com
