A long-term structural analysis suggests the Dogecoin price may be approaching a critical point in this market cycle. With price action compressing and volatility fading, a crypto analyst’s wave-based assessment suggests that DOGE is preparing for an explosive surge toward $10 and beyond, driven by a third-wave deadlock.
Third Wave Deadlock To Fuel Dogecoin Price Rally
Crypto market expert EtherNasyonal has stated that Dogecoin remains trapped within a third-wave deadlock. This means the cryptocurrency has not yet shown the decisive movement that typically follows a strong wave. Instead, it continues to trade in a tight range without confirming a clear breakout as the price remains confined to the lower region of the ascending channel.
The analyst shared an Elliott Wave chart highlighting Dogecoin’s long-term trajectory and price targets above $10, based on a multi-year channel model. His analysis highlights three major waves that define the meme coin’s macro structure. The first wave, which started in 2014, saw an early breakout in 2017, while the second wave triggered the explosive 2021 bull rally. The price action that followed transitioned into the current third wave, during which Dogecoin remains locked in a consolidation zone as it awaits the wave’s completion.
If historical patterns were to repeat, EtherNasyonal suggests that Dogecoin could see a third-wave breakout. His chart analysis reveals an ascending channel pointing to several upward targets. If the cryptocurrency manages a breakout, the channel points to an initial target around $0.5, followed by higher targets ranging from $1.2 to over $16. The analyst has also stated that the third-wave breakout will define the strength and direction of Dogecoin’s next major trend.
Analyst Says Dogecoin Will Reach $1 By 2026
A fresh analysis from crypto market expert Trader Tardigrade focuses on a less ambitious price target for Dogecoin and on a different timeframe. His weekly chart shows that the meme coin has repeatedly bounced off a long-standing ascending support line. Each of these past rebounds has triggered significant rallies in the Dogecoin price.
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In November 2024, the meme coin skyrocketed by 86.77%. Just four months later, in March 2025, Dogecoin launched another impressive rally, climbing 210.52%. The momentum continued in November of the same year, with the price surging by 442.48%.
Trader Tardigrade notes that Dogecoin has returned to this launchpad area once again, testing the same trendlines that previously ignited strong upward movements. If the historical pattern holds, the analyst predicts DOGE could hit $1 by Q1 2026. His chart shows a potential 611.80% from present levels around $0.15.
Although the meme coin is currently in a slump, having lost more than 20% over the past month according to CoinMarketCap, Trader Tardigrade remains confident in its long-term outlook. A move toward $1 would signal a decisive bullish reversal, restoring investor sentiment and overturning the prevailing downtrend.
Featured image from Getty Images, chart from Tradingview.com
