Bitwise chief investment officer Matt Hougan is more confident that crypto markets will boom in 2026, particularly as there hasn’t been a late-2025 rally yet.
Speaking to Cointelegraph at The Bridge conference in New York City on Wednesday, Hougan said a crypto market rally at the end of 2025 would have fit the four-year cycle thesis, meaning 2026 would mark the start of a bear market, similar to 2022 and 2018.
When asked to revise his prediction about whether the crypto market will boom in 2026, Hougan said: “I’m actually more confident in that quote. The biggest risk was [if] we ripped into the end of 2025 and then we got a pullback.”
Hougan said interest in the Bitcoin (BTC) debasement trade, stablecoins and tokenization would continue to accelerate, while arguing that Uniswap’s fee switch proposal introduced on Monday would reinvigorate interest in decentralized finance protocols in the coming year.
“I think the underlying fundamentals are just so sound,” Hougan said. “I think these earlier forces, institutional investment, regulatory progress, stablecoins, tokenization, I just think those are too big to keep down. So I think 2026 will be a good year.”
Bitcoin can still set a new high before year’s end
Hougan is still optimistic that Bitcoin, Ether (ETH) and Solana (SOL) can set new highs by 2026, but not as far as Maelstrom Fund chief investment officer Arthur Hayes and Fundstrat managing partner Tom Lee think.
The pair predicted a few months ago that Bitcoin and Ether could reach $250,000 and $15,000, respectively, before the end of the year.
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Bitcoin is currently trading at $101,762 and Ether at $3,416, meaning that they would have to rise 145% and 340% to reach those lofty targets.
Crypto-native retail is “depressed”
Speaking of the current market pullback, Hougan blamed it on “crypto-native retail,” arguing that many early investors have “compressed upside” with large sales lately.
And those who expected a repeat of the 2020-2021 bull cycle have been given a harsh reality check, Hougan said.
“Crypto native retail is depressed, they were beaten down by FTX, they were beaten down by the memecoin debacle. They were beaten down by the altcoin season not arriving. They got hurt on the 10/10 liquidation, and I think they’re just sitting this one out.”
On the other hand, “TradFi retail” is thriving, according to Hougan, who pointed to the rise in spot crypto exchange-traded fund inflows over the last two years.
“Traditional retail, like my uncle, he’s moving into crypto, that part of retail is still alive,” said Hougan.
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