Secondary Prices Fall, Auctions Set Records

The Swiss luxury watch market is ending 2024 in a stark contrast. While the secondary market has weakened, the auction scene for high-value, unique, provenance-rich watches has experienced a resurgence. As the speculative frenzy of the pandemic fades, prices for many contemporary models have taken a sharp dive. In this shifting landscape, collectors are refocusing their attention on the timeless appeal of rare and historically significant watches. The market isn’t just surviving—it’s evolving.

Secondary Market Correction

Prices in the secondary market extended their decline throughout 2024. Iconic models such as the Rolex Daytona and Patek Philippe Nautilus have seen price drops of 30% to 40% from their peak prices in 2022. The WatchCharts Overall Market Index fell 5.8% in 2024, indicating waning investor interest in watches as speculative assets.

WatchCharts Overall Market Index

The downturn is well-documented, driven by a significant oversupply in the secondary market as opportunistic sellers and flippers rushed to capitalize on the hype. Rising interest rates and cooling consumer sentiment dampened demand for luxury items. The slowdown was particularly severe in China. Shifting perception added to industry problems, as watches, once viewed as solid investments, are now seen as mostly depreciating assets.

This correction is a welcome development for collectors who value watches for their craftsmanship, history, and design. As speculative buyers exit, new and old enthusiasts can acquire watches from popular brands at more reasonable prices.

Auction Houses Report Record Prices

In a positive note for the industry, auction houses recorded better-than-expected results in 2024 for rare and provenance-rich timepieces. The success of recent auctions in Geneva and New York suggests that the demand for unique and historically significant watches remains. Whether tied to cultural icons or limited production, watches with compelling stories continue to attract premium bids.

For example, in Geneva, at the Christie’s Rare Watches Auction in November, a 1935 Breguet No. 3218 sold for CHF 1.92 million, well above its low pre-sale estimate of CHF 100,000. In December in New York, Steve McQueen’s Heuer Monaco sold for $1.4 million at Sotheby’s, far exceeding its pre-sale estimate of $500,000-$1 million. Sylvester Stallone’s Patek Philippe Grandmaster Chime achieved $5.4 million at a June Sotheby’s auction, setting a record for a modern timepiece.

The dichotomy between declining secondary prices and thriving auctions highlights a shift in the luxury watch market. Speculative buyers who dominated the market during the pandemic are exiting, making way for true enthusiasts and collectors.

Opportunities for Collectors

Collectors can now access iconic models that rose in price during the pandemic, but have since returned to more normal price levels. Models like the Audemars Piguet Royal Oak and Vacheron Constantin Overseas are now more attainable, and secondary market premiums for popular Rolex and Patek Philippe models, while still high, have fallen significantly. However, these watches are still extremely difficult to obtain from authorized dealers, leaving the secondary market as the only guaranteed way to buy one.

Collectors also appear to be migrating away from high-production new watches to vintage pieces with historical significance. For example, Omega’s Speedmaster Professional Moonwatch or early Rolex Submariners continue to see demand. Paul Altieri, founder and CEO of Bob’s Watches, one of the largest online pre-owned luxury watch dealers, said he saw 20% growth in demand this year for Rolex models from the 1980s, notably Oyster Perpetual and GMT-Master models. He also noted a 42% increase in demand for green dial watches in 2024 compared to 2023, confirming the trend toward less common timepieces.

And let’s not forget the rise in popularity of of the independent watchmakers such as F.P. Journe, H. Moser and others. “Collectors seem increasingly drawn to the artistry, innovation, and exclusivity these brands offer, which often stand in contrast to the large-scale production of established brands,” Altieri says. “These timepieces are often much more expensive, reflecting their rarity and the meticulous craftsmanship involved, which appeals to collectors but also makes the market highly sensitive to demand shifts.”

Industry Developments

Luxury watch brands are adjusting to the more challenging market. In its latest report, The Federation of the Swiss Watch Industry, showed a 4% drop in exports in 2024. The majority of the decline came from China. The industry has also complained about the strength of the Swiss franc, which has hurt exports. Some Swiss manufacturers have even had to furlough workers and receive government subsidies in response to the downturn.

Despite the downturn, or what some describe as a return to normalcy, some positive developments and trends are taking place. In an appeal to younger, values-driven consumers, brands increasingly focus on storytelling, turning to social media to carefully craft their image.

Brands are also getting traction through increased acceptance of customization. Bespoke watches featuring personalized engravings or unique dials are gaining popularity among collectors seeking exclusivity. In addition, the proliferation of online resale and auction platforms is democratizing access to new, pre-owned, and rare watches, expanding the market beyond traditional retail stores and large auction houses.

A Market in Transition

The luxury watch market is transitioning to normalcy. The speculative bubble is over and collectors are returning. Declining secondary market prices allow enthusiasts to acquire brand-name pieces at less of a premium. At the same time, auction houses are setting price records for watches with unique provenance.

The bifurcation of the market—more accessible pricing for contemporary models catering to everyday collectors and record-breaking auction prices for one-of-a-kind pieces—ensures there’s something to captivate every type of watch enthusiast.