Topline
Black smoke billowed from the Sistine Chapel minutes after 9 p.m. local time, indicating cardinals did not choose a successor to Pope Francis on its first ballot after day one of the largest ever papal conclave—a largely expected result since elections typically take two to three days, thought this could extend longer due to its size and importance.
Cardinals attend mass ahead of the conclave on Wednesday. (Photo by Riccardo De Luca/Anadolu via … More
Key Facts
The black smoke Wednesday evening indicates the first ballot cast by the 133 voting cardinals did not yield a two-thirds majority for any candidate.
Cardinals will resume voting Thursday for the second day of conclave, during which four rounds of votes will be conducted—two in the morning, followed by two in the afternoon, with smoke emitted after every two rounds, unless a pope is chosen earlier.
Wednesday’s vote took longer than most experts had predicted, as the first release of smoke took an hour longer than the first black smoke in 2013 during the conclave that elected Pope Francis.
Mathew Schmalz, editor of the Journal of Global Catholicism and College of the Holy Cross religious studies professor, told BBC News the lengthy wait for the first release of smoke may have been because of the large number of cardinals from around the world meeting one another for the first time, speculating the conclave could take one day longer than usual.
Though it’s unclear why Wednesday’s vote took so long, Schmalz told the BBC he is “getting kind of nervous” about whether the conclave may have run into issues that will need to be smoothed out in the coming days.
The conclave of 133 electors is the largest and most globally diverse in history, greater than the 115 electors that participated in the 2005 and 2013 conclaves, which may also cause a longer time for the vote.
Who Are The Leading Contenders To Be Elected Pope?
There’s no clear frontrunner to win the papacy, Vatican experts say, though some of the cardinals considered to be prime candidates include Italy’s Pietro Parolin, the Vatican secretary of state who is considered more moderate than Francis, and the Philippines’s Luis Antonio Gokim Tagle, who has drawn comparisons to Francis for his liberal-leaning stances and his championing of the poor. Parolin and Tagle are the two leading contenders on various betting sites, including Polymarket and Kalshi, as bettors wage millions on the papal election. Other cardinals considered possible candidates include several from Italy, Pierbattista Pizzaballa and Matteo Zuppi, as well as Congo’s Fridolin Ambongo, Hungary’s Peter Erdo, Ghana’s Peter Turkson and France’s Jean-Marc Aveline.
How Does The Conclave Work—and How Long Will It Take?
While secluded from the outside world, cardinals under the age of 80 will cast four votes each day until one candidate receives a two-thirds majority. The process begins Wednesday afternoon with mass at St. Peter’s Basilica, after which cardinals proceed to the Sistine Chapel to begin the conclave. Should no successor be chosen on a given day, cardinals spend the night in Vatican guesthouses to resume voting the next day. Each cardinal is assigned a desk affixed with papers that say, “Eligo in summum pontificem,” or, “I choose as supreme pontiff.”
How Do They Announce When A Pope Has Been Chosen?
After voting, the ballots are burned, and chemicals are added to produce either black smoke—indiciating no pope has been elected—or white smoke—meaning a pope has been chosen—from the Sistine Chapel. Vatican watchers gather to watch what color the smoke is after every vote.
Why Is This Conclave Important?
Papal experts have said the conclave could determine whether the Catholic Church continues down the path laid by Francis to become more progressive, or whether a more conservative successor could be chosen and potentially roll back some of Francis’s reforms. Francis was notable, and divisive, for his stances striking a more welcoming tone toward LGBTQ Catholics and women in church leadership roles, which won some global praise but angered conservative critics. Cardinal Anders Arborelius of Sweden said some cardinals want to elect a successor “who can follow in the footsteps of Francis. Some others said, ‘No, no. Not at all,’” the New York Times reported, while Italian conservative Cardinal Camillo Ruini said there is a “need to return the church to Catholics.” Dean of the College of Cardinals, Giovanni Battista Re, said in a homily Wednesday the new pope will face a “difficult and complex turning point in history,” stating he prayed for a pope who leads “for the good of the church and of humanity.”
Surprising Fact
Some cardinals have watched the movie “Conclave,” the papal drama that won an Oscar just two months ago, while prepping for the real thing, Politico reported, citing a cleric involved in the conclave who said some cardinals found the film “remarkably accurate.” Viewership of “Conclave” spiked 283% within a day of Francis’s death, according to Luminate.
Key Background
Francis died at age 88 on Easter Monday, April 21, following a bout of health issues, which led to his longest hospital stay while pope. Francis was hospitalized earlier this year for bilateral pneumonia and bronchitis, and Vatican doctors said he died of cerebral stroke and irreversible heart failure.
Further Reading
These Cardinals Are The Top Candidates To Succeed Pope Francis (Forbes)
The Church Is More Global Than Ever. What Does That Mean for the Next Pope? (New York Times)
