A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Tom Westbrook
The surging Taiwan dollar was the big mover in a holiday-thinned Asia session, kicking off a busy week of central bank decisions, key economic data and investors coming to grips with Warren Buffett’s departure from the top of Berkshire Hathaway.
U.S. President Donald Trump announced a 100% tariff on movies produced outside the U.S., ordered the reopening of the infamous Alcatraz prison in San Francisco Bay and reiterated his belief that China is open to cutting a trade deal.
The Taiwan dollar leapt to an almost three-year high in its second consecutive session of outsized gains, fuelling speculation that some Asian countries were prepared to engineer foreign exchange revaluations to win U.S. trade concessions.
The Taiwan dollar does not have an official peg but the central bank does intervene as and when needed to ensure the currency’s “dynamic stability”. Its two-day rise of more than 6% is the largest on record, according to LSEG data.
Holidays in Britain, Hong Kong, China, Japan and South Korea otherwise put a damper on Monday trade, the barrage of Trump headlines notwithstanding.
In a TV interview aired on Sunday, Trump said he would not attempt to remove Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell but repeated calls for lower interest rates and called the Chair a “stiff”.
The Fed meets on Wednesday and is widely expected to leave rates steady following a solid March payrolls report.
The Bank of England meets on Thursday and is a heavy favourite to cut interest rates, while central banks in Norway and Sweden are expected to keep rates steady.
At elections over the weekend, incumbents in Australia and Singapore were returned to power, echoing the result in Canada with ruling parties’ fortunes bolstered by the global economic uncertainty that Trump has unleashed.
At the same time, hard-right eurosceptic George Simion won the first round of Romania’s presidential election re-run on Sunday, near-final results showed, riding a wave of Trump-style nationalism in the European Union.
Key developments that could influence markets on Monday:
Economics: U.S. Services ISM
Earnings: Ford, Palantir
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(By Tom Westbrook; Editing by Edmund Klamann)
