Stocks ended the week higher after a turbulent week of fresh tariff headlines driving the market action.
But even after the S&P 500’s (^GSPC) best week in over a year, the benchmark index is still down 6% since President Trump’s April 2 tariff announcement. Meanwhile the Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) and Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) are off roughly 5% in the same period.
In the week ahead, any incremental news on tariffs will be in focus. On Saturday news of exemptions on tariffs to China spread. Key products such as smartphones, laptop computers, hard drives and computer processors and memory chips wont be subject to the tariffs, providing a potential boost to tech giants Apple (AAPL) and Nvidia (NVDA).
Quarterly financial reports from a slew of American corporates will also be top of mind for investors. Goldman Sachs (GS), Bank of America (BAC), Citi (C), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM), and Netflix (NFLX) are expected to provide updates.
On the economic data front, investors will be closely tracking an update on monthly retail sales for March due out on Wednesday.
Markets will be closed on Friday for Good Friday.
SNP – Delayed Quote•USD
At close: April 11 at 4:56:34 PM EDT
^GSPC^DJI ^IXIC
Last Wednesday, Trump announced a 90-day pause on many “reciprocal” tariffs. Markets soared with the Nasdaq Composite rising over 12% for its second-best day on record.
A day later, the White House confirmed that the total tariffs on China will now be 145% when accounting for the previous 20% duties already in place. The news came as a surprise to the market as President Trump had posted on Truth Social on Wednesday that the tariff rate charged to China would be 125%. The Nasdaq tumbled 4.3% in reaction.
Overall, the estimated effective tariff rate has moved from 22.5% on April 2 to 27% after the latest China levies, per the Yale Budget Lab.
Read more: What Trump’s tariffs mean for the economy and your wallet
With the US’s exact landing spot on tariffs remaining a moving target, Wall Street strategists believe that recent developments show tariff uncertainty will remain a key driver of market action in the weeks ahead.
“Overall, we’re kind of still where we were,” Brent Schutte, Northwestern Mutual Wealth Management Company’s chief investment officer, told Yahoo Finance on Thursday. “Certainly, some of the tension has come off the boil, but there’s still a lot of uncertainty out there. And to me, uncertainty means that people are more indecisive, CEOs and consumers alike. And that is the risk going forward in the next 90 days.”
Trump’s tariff back-and-forth has economists arguing the risks of recession have been rising. The fear is a combination of higher prices and that overall uncertainty about policy could slow US economic growth. The recession debate comes as economic growth data has been largely weaker than expected in the start to 2025.
A closely tracked consumer spending metric is set for release on Wednesday. The March retail sales report is expected to show sales increased 1.4% in March, up from a 0.2% increase the month prior. Excluding the volatile auto and gas, retail sales are expected to have grown 0.4%.
“Big-ticket spending in March and April could see a surge as consumers pull forward those purchases before tariffs take a significant bite,” the Wells Fargo economics team led by Jay Bryson wrote in a note to clients on Friday. “After that, however, we are likely to see a weak consumer spending performance in the second half of the year.”
First quarter earnings reports trickled in last week with uncertainty at the forefront of companies messaging. Delta Air Lines (DAL) pulled its full-year guidance amid what CEO Ed Bastian told Yahoo Finance is a “murky” outlook.
JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon said the economy is facing “considerable turbulence.” Meanwhile, BlackRock CEO Larry Fink said that “uncertainty and anxiety about the future of markets and the economy are dominating client conversations.”
Strategists expect this to be a continued theme as earnings reports roll on this week.
“It’s the murkiest environment you could be in outside of a pandemic,” Charles Schwab senior investment strategist Kevin Gordon told Yahoo Finance. “We’re kind of entering back into that sort of environment where there’s probably going to be no guidance on the aggregate level, and companies … they can’t tell us what’s going to happen.”
The Wall Street sign is seen outside of the New York Stock Exchange during morning trading on April 11, 2025, in New York City. (Michael M. Santiago/Getty Images) ·Michael M. Santiago via Getty Images
A rapid bond market sell-off has added another headwind to the bull case for stocks.
The 10-year Treasury yield (^TNX) soared last week, logging its largest weekly gain since November 2021. At times over the past two years, a rise in the 10-year has become a key driver of stocks’ decline, particularly when the yield rises above 4.5%. At the current moment, the massive spike and increase in rate volatility appears to be the main concern among investors.
Piper Sandler chief investment strategist Michael Kantrowitz told Yahoo Finance the bond market action is a “new negative” in the market narrative.
“It kind of creates this new variable that could add to the volatility during the day, when there’s not headline news,” Kantrowitz said while also noting regularly scheduled Treasury auctions could now be stock market moving events.
He added, “Really simply, interest rates going up at a time where there’s clearly a growth scare and a recession scare and a great deal of uncertainty is just bad news period.”
And with a variety of factors potentially driving the sell-off, investors don’t think the chaos in the bond market is ending anytime soon.
“We’re going to be in an elevated volatility environment for the time being, which is one reason why we like raising some cash in our portfolios, just to generate some flexibility,” David Rogal, lead portfolio manager of the BlackRock Total Return Fund (MAHQX), told Yahoo Finance.
Economic data: New York Fed one-year inflation expectations, March (3.13% prior)
Economic data: Empire manufacturing, April (-10 expected, -20 prior); Import price index month over month, March (0% expected, +0.4% prior)
Earnings: Albertson’s (ACI), Bank of America (BAC), Citi (C), Interactive Brokers (IBKR), J.B. Hunt (JBHT), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), PNC (PNC), Rent The Runway (RENT), United Airlines (UAL)
Economic data: Retail sales month over month, March (+1..4% expected, +0.2% prior); Retail sales excluding auto and gas month over month, March (+0.4% expected, +0.5% prior); Retail sales control group month over month, March (+0.5% expected, +1% prior); NAHB Housing Market Index, April (37 expected, 39 prior); Industrial production, month-over-month, March (-0.3% expected, +0.7% prior); MBA mortgage applications, April 11 (20% prior)
Earnings: Abbott (ABT), Alcoa (AA), ASML (ASML), Citizens Financial Group (CFG), Progressive (PGR), Synovus (SNV), Travelers (TRV), US Bancorp (USB)
Economic data: Initial jobless claims, week ending April 12 (223,000 prior); Continuing claims, week ending April 5, (1.85 million prior); Housing starts, month-over-month March (-6.1% expected, 11.2% prior)
Earnings: Netflix (NFLX), Ally (ALLY), American Express (AXP), D.R. Horton (DHI), Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM), UnitedHealth Group (UNH)
Friday
Markets are closed for Good Friday.
Earnings:
Josh Schafer is a reporter for Yahoo Finance. Follow him on X @_joshschafer.
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