During the AI boom, Wedbush analyst Dan Ives has become Wall Street’s most prominent tech evangelist, offering an unrelentingly bullish view on how this new technology will usher in a Fourth Industrial Revolution.
But as times change, people do too.
And in a note to clients on Friday, Ives sounded the alarm on the state of the tech trade as the reality of Trump’s shock tariff announcement on Wednesday continues to sink in across the investment world.
“The concept of taking the US back to the 1980’s ‘manufacturing days’ with these tariffs is a bad science experiment that in the process will cause an economic Armageddon in our view and crush the tech trade, AI Revolution theme, and overall industry in the process,” Ives wrote.
Read more: What Trump’s tariffs mean for the economy and your wallet
How Trump and his team will pull off revitalizing US manufacturing is a debate that will dominate economic policy circles for years to come.
As that years-long process plays out, however, US consumers look set to face swift and dramatic changes in the cost of some goods. Eggs have played a major role in the recent inflation discourse, and Wall Street economists on Thursday began floating the idea that the rate of inflation could double this year as a result of Trump’s actions.
But Ives has a simpler and perhaps even more tangible warning for how these tariffs will weigh on consumers: The cost of an iPhone might triple.
“The economic pain that will be brought by these tariffs are hard to describe and can essentially take the US tech industry back a decade in the process while China steamrolls ahead,” Ives wrote.
“50% China tariffs, 32% Taiwan tariffs would essentially cause a shut-off valve from the US tech landscape and in the process cause every electronic to go up 40%-50% for consumers, iPhones made in the US would cost $3,500 (vs. $1,000), and the AI Revolution trade would be significantly slowed down by these head scratching tariffs that NEED to be negotiated to realistic levels.” (Emphasis added.)
Ives also flagged an issue Nick Colas at DataTrek highlighted in a Friday morning note too: There’s a duration mismatch between US politics and Trump’s manufacturing ambitions.
“It will take many years for companies to shift production here, but Americans go to the polls every two years for Congress and four years for the presidency,” Colas wrote.
“Should newly announced trade policy cause a recession and incremental inflation, the lingering effects of both will be on voters’ minds, especially in 2028,” he added.
