AP Photo/Nam Y. Huh
The last postings described the market conditions for the magnificent seven stocks plus one. Two stocks now stand out: Tesla and Amazon. The weekly cycles of the S&P 500, NASDAQ Composite, and the 1-4-10 year cycle combination for the Dow Jones have all bottomed, so the market is due to rally through April.
Tesla’s monthly cycle has bottomed and price has turned up. The stock is oversold both daily and weekly. And, if bearish sentiment is a price propellant through the application of contrary opinion, this stock has this additional booster. April, May, and June have been the strongest months over the last 14 years as the histogram of expected return shows. The stock is likely to retrace 50% of its prior decline by reaching $325-$330.
Tesla Monthly Cycle
This cycle points to a rally through April
Tesla Monthly Histogram
This is the strong season for TSLA.
Amazon is in a similar technical/cyclical condition. The monthly cycle is rising and seasonality is favorable. This stock did not keep pace with the Mag Seven pack on the way down. In other words, relative strength is strong, having bottomed in August 2024. Over the last 27 years, the stock has risen from March 3rd to April 27th 78% of the time. The $230 price level is a reasonable target through April.
Amazon Monthly Cycle
This cycle is pulling price up.
Amazon Monthly Histogram
This is the strong season for AMZN.
