The Evolution Of Conference Power In March Madness

On Selection Sunday 2025, the SEC made history, securing an NCAA record 14 tournament selections to the March Madness field. No conference has ever achieved such a feat. The previous record belonged to the Big East in 2011, when 11 teams from the conference earned a spot in the tournament. This milestone is more than just a statistical anomaly; it is the latest sign of a fundamental shift in the balance of power within the sport.

Conferences With The Most March Madness Bids

Not all conferences are created equal, and March Madness perfectly highlights the stark divide between different conferences. From 2005 to 2025, a total of 32 conferences have been represented in the NCAA Tournament (31 in 2025), each fighting for a spot in the 68-team field. Every conference tournament champion earns an automatic bid, while the remaining 37 at-large spots are up for grabs.

However, not all conferences see the same level of representation. Of the 32 conferences which have participated in March Madness between 2005-2025, 13 conferences have only ever received one bid per year. These include the Atlantic Sun, America East, Big Sky, Big South, Ivy League, MAC, MEAC, Northeast, Patriot, SWAC, Southern, Southland, and Summit Conferences.

At the other end of the spectrum, 6 conferences have never received fewer than two bids in a single year. These are the current and former Power (high major) conferences which include the Atlantic Cost (ACC), Big 12, Big East, Big Ten, Southeastern (SEC), and Pac-12 Conferences. Over this 20-tournament span (excluding 2020, when the event was canceled due to COVID-19), the Big Ten leads the way with a median 7 March Madness bids per year. The Big East and Big 12 follow closely behind with a median 6 March Madness bids per year, the ACC with 5.5, SEC with 5, and Pac-12 with 4.

The above graph shows the divergence in distributions of the number of March Madness bids per year by conference. The Power conferences have significantly more representation per conference than non-Power conferences. The only other conferences which typically receive more than one bid include the American Athletic (AAC), Atlantic 10, Mountain West, and West Coast Conferences. These leagues have consistently produced at-large selections. As conference realignment continues to reshape college basketball, the gap between Power and non-Power conferences may only widen further.

Power Conferences Increasingly Dominate At-Large Bids

Since 2015, the number of Power conference teams earning NCAA Tournament bids has consistently outpaced their non-Power, or mid-major, counterparts. Not only has this divide persisted, but the gap has widened over time. Below is a time-series plot tracking March Madness bids for Power and non-Power conference teams since 2005. The trendline, generated using a locally weighted scatterplot smoothing (LOWESS) curve, highlights this growing disparity. While there are yearly fluctuations, the overall trajectory shows a clear and accelerating separation in recent years.

There are three potential drivers of this trend. The first driver is the use of NET rankings. NET rankings were released in 2018 to replace the RPI with the intention of developing a ranking system that could not be unfairly manipulated by any team. However, evidence suggests that the NET rankings are unintentionally biased in favor of the Power conferences because of the Selection Committee’s emphasis on Quad I wins. Teams in Power conferences naturally have more Quad I opportunities due to stronger schedules. As a result, non-Power conference teams with strong records often rank lower than Power conference teams with mediocre records.

The second driver of this trend is NIL. In 2019, the California legislature officially opened the door for college players to receive compensation from endorsements, accelerating the impact of NIL collectives. Power conference programs have built multimillion-dollar NIL war chests to attract top-tier recruits and transfers, giving them a significant talent advantage over the majority of their non-Power conference counterparts.

The third, and perhaps most important, driver is conference realignment. The Power conferences are consolidating and absorbing historically strong non-Power conference basketball schools. For example, in 2013, Xavier, Butler, and Creighton all joined the Big East from the Atlantic 10 and the Missouri Valley Conferences. Ten years later, Houston, Cincinnati, UCF, and BYU all joined the Big 12 from the AAC and WCC. This consolidation has strengthened the Power conferences, ensuring that these successful programs now receive Power conference bids rather than non-Power conference bids.

If these trends continue, non-Power conference teams will face even steeper odds when competing for at-large bids. The “Cinderella story” teams may soon become even rarer, further reinforcing the dominance of Power conferences in the tournament.

Changing Of The Guard Among Power Conferences

The tides are turning in college basketball as the balance of power among conferences continues to shift. Once-dominant leagues have seen their influence wane, while others have surged to the forefront. These trends become evident when analyzing the share of Power conference NCAA Tournament bids claimed by each league over time.

Below is a heatmap displaying the percentage of Power conference bids awarded to the SEC, Pac-12, Big Ten, Big East, Big 12, and ACC in recent years. This visualization highlights the changing conference hierarchy and underscores the winners and losers of realignment, selection trends, and performance on the court.

The Rise and Fall of Big East Dominance

Before 2013, the Big East was the powerhouse conference, consistently sending the most teams to March Madness. At its peak in 2011, the Big East sent a record 11 teams to the NCAA Tournament—more than any conference in history at the time. However, in 2013, the Big East fundamentally restructured as Syracuse, Pittsburgh, and Louisville departed for the ACC (joined by Notre Dame in non-football sports), Rutgers departed for the Big Ten, and West Virginia departed for the Big 12. While the basketball-focused Big East remains competitive, its representation has declined significantly. Since 2014, the Big East has averaged only 5 bids per year compared to 7.9 bids per year between 2005-2013. This decline has had significant financial implications. Conferences will take home around $2 million each per representative in the Big Dance this season. That represents almost $6 million in lost revenue per year for the Big East.

The ACC Fills the Void

Following the Big East’s decline, the ACC emerged as the dominant conference, reaching its peak in 2017 and 2018 with 9 teams earning bids each year. However, the ACC’s influence has faded significantly in recent years. The post-COVID-19 era has been particularly unkind, with fewer teams selected each year. The 2025 tournament saw just 4 ACC teams make the field—its lowest number since 2013 and the smallest share of Power conference bids since 2011. In fact, many bracketologists postulated that the ACC might only receive 3 bids this year, but North Carolina narrowly avoided exclusion as a controversial choice for the Last Four In.

The Big Ten Ascends

The Big Ten arose as the next juggernaut conference and led all conferences in March Madness bids in 2019-2022. In general, the Big Ten has been on an upward trajectory for the past decade. Between 2005-2014, the Big Ten never sent more than 7 teams to March Madness, but since 2015, there have only been two years in which the conference sent fewer than 7 teams. Every year since 2019, the conference has been one of the top two conferences in representation in the tournament. However, despite this sustained dominance in regular-season performance, the Big Ten has struggled to convert success into national championships, failing to produce a title winner since Michigan State in 2000.

The SEC’s Historic Surge

No conference has risen faster than the SEC, culminating in a record-breaking 14 bids in 2025—the most ever awarded to a single conference. The SEC’s growth was not immediate but has been trending upward since 2018, when the league first claimed more than 20% of Power conference bids with 8 teams in March Madness. Prior to 2018, the SEC averaged just 4.4 bids per year, but since then, the number has nearly doubled to 8.1 per year. Not only has the SEC achieved a record number of bids, but it received two of the No. 1 seeds, including the No. 1 overall seed Auburn, and two of the No. 2 seeds in the tournament. With massive financial investments, elite coaching hires, and a thriving NIL landscape, the SEC is positioning itself as the premier basketball conference of the future.

The Stability of the Big 12 and the Pac-12’s Struggles

Unlike other conferences that have risen or fallen, the Big 12 has been a model of consistency. Since 2014, the conference has received between 6 and 8 bids every year, never leading all conferences but always among the top contenders.

Meanwhile, the Pac-12 struggled to keep pace. From 2017 to 2024, the league averaged just 3.7 bids per year, the lowest share of any Power conference. With realignment gutting the Pac-12 in 2024, UCLA, USC, Oregon, and Washington left to the Big Ten, and Arizona, Arizona State, Colorado, and Utah left to the Big 12. It remains to be seen what the future holds for the historic conference. This season, both Oregon State and Washington State played in the West Coast Conference.

How The Shift Of Power Affects March Madness

March Madness conference representation has shifted dramatically, with Power conferences tightening their grip on at-large bids. The Big East’s decline, the ACC’s struggles, and the Big Ten’s and SEC’s rise highlight how NET rankings, NIL, and realignment have reshaped college basketball. Cinderella stories like Saint Peter’s and FAU prove underdogs can still thrive, but they may become increasingly rare.