UFC 315 Main Event Opening Odds: Muhammad Vs. Della Maddalena

Belal Muhammad is closing in on a year since he won the UFC welterweight title, upsetting Leon Edwards in the main event of UFC 304. Muhammad makes his first defense of that belt in the headlining bout of UFC 315, where he faces Jack Della Maddalena. We look at the opening betting odds and background for the upcoming Muhammad vs. Della Maddalena matchup.

UFC 315 takes place at Bell Centre in Montreal, Quebec, Canada. The main card streams on ESPN+ pay-per-view following prelims on ESPN and early prelims on ESPN+.

UFC 315 Fight Card: Belal Muhammad Vs. Jack Della Maddalena

Belal Muhammad (24-3-0-1) joined the UFC with a perfect 9-0 record. Not long after Muhammad claimed the Titan FC welterweight crown, the UFC came knocking. Muhammad signed with the promotion in 2016. At the time, he was 27. Bloody Elbow described him as, “In the cage he is largely a volume puncher, tending to work at the edges of range keeping a constant jab going and working behind it. He does well to work a kicking game in with his boxing, and puts some real power behind those kicks, but the focus is definitely on being a combination puncher. To that end, Muhammad does a good job feinting and changing rhythm, to keep his opponent from guessing his timing too easily.

“Muhammad uses his footwork well at range, circling away, maintaining distance and not walking himself into the pocket. As such he’s got pretty solid takedown defense. His focus is on accuracy and timing, and he rarely puts himself in a bad position to be taken down. Just because of his style, Muhammad hasn’t been much of a finisher to date in his MMA career, but he’s got the kind of style that’s great for breaking down opponents over time.”

Muhammad had a rough go of things in the UFC. He went 1-2 with his losses, a decision to Alan Jouban, and a knockout setback at the hands of Vicente Luque, bookending a TKO victory over Augusto Montaño. The loss to Jouban, Muhammad’s UFC debut, earned the combatants “Fight of the Night” honors.

After the loss to Luque, Muhammad won four straight decisions. That winning streak ended in 2019 when Geoff Neal topped Muhammad via decision. That loss is the most recent blemish on Muhammad’s record.

The 36-year-old is on a 10-0-0-1 run since then. Following the loss to Neal, Muhammad went 4-0. That run put him in the main event of UFC Vegas 21 opposite Leon Edwards. At the time, Edwards was the No. 3 competitor in the official UFC welterweight rankings, while Muhammad checked in at No. 13. Edwards was a -270 betting favorite, while Muhammad was the +220 betting underdog.

The contest did not last long as Edwards poked Muhammad in the eye 18 seconds into the second round. The eye poke left Muhammad unable to continue, and the fight was ruled a no contest.

Over the next two years, Muhammad rang up five more victories against progressively tougher competition. He defeated Demian Maia, Stephen Thompson, Vicente Luque, Sean Brady, and Gilbert Burns during that run. The triumph over Burns earned Muhammad the No. 2 ranking in the division and a date with Edwards at UFC 304. Edwards was the reigning UFC welterweight champion at the time and was looking to make a third defense of that belt against Muhammad. Edwards was on a 12-fight unbeaten run when he stepped into the Octagon as the -265 favorite over the +215 Muhammad.

After the fight, which Muhammad won via decision, I wrote, “Belal Muhammad had the perfect game plan for Leon Edwards at UFC 304. Not only did he and his team have that strategy mapped out, but Muhammad seamlessly executed that plan of attack.

Muhammad used pressure and high-output striking to remove time and space from Edwards. That approach forced Edwards to retreat, and once Muhammad had his opponent’s back to the fence, he added his wrestling and ground control to the mix.

Edwards landed a decent percentage of his strikes at 66 percent, but the pressure from Muhammad limited his attempts to just 71 significant strikes. Edwards threw over 100 strikes in his two most recent bouts. Muhammad was especially effective in his wrestling, racking up nine takedowns on 13 attempts and picking up 12:02 of control time.

“With the win, Muhammad won the UFC welterweight title and extended his unbeaten streak to 11 fights. His last loss came in January 2019, when Geoff Neal defeated him via decision.”

Muhammad was booked to face Shavkat Rakhmonov at UFC 310, but a bone infection prevented Muhammad from competing on that card. With Rakhmonov unable to compete at UFC 314, the UFC opted to book Muhammad against Della Maddalena in Montreal.

Jack Della Maddalena (17-2) signed with the UFC in September 2021 following a decision win over Ange Loosa on a Dana White’s Contender Series card. Before the bout, UFC matchmaker Sean Shelby said of Della Maddalena, “I thinkDella Maddalena is probably the best prospect out of New Zealand or Australia at welterweight. He’s a big guy. He throws a ton of offense, and he’s really good in the clinch. The win over Loosa marked the first time Della Maddalena had won a fight via decision. He went into the bout on a run of nine stoppages (eight knockouts, one submission) after opening his professional career at 0-2 with two stoppage setbacks. Della Maddalena was the reigning and defending Eternal MMA welterweight titleholder heading into the DWCS card.

The Australian scrapper opened his official UFC run with four first-round stoppage wins and three “Performance of the Night” bonuses. He finished Pete Rodriguez, Ramazan Emeev, and Danny Roberts by knockout before stopping Randy Brown via submission.

In his first fight to go the distance under the UFC banner, Della Maddalena was in a “Fight of the Night” bonus-winning affair with Bassil Hafez, which Della Maddalena won via split decision. He followed that with another split decision, topping Kevin Holland in September 2023.

The 28-year-old got to finishing fights in his most recent outing, knocking out former UFC welterweight title challenger Gilbert Burns in the third round of their UFC 299 meeting.

I wrote of Della Maddalena’s “Performance of the Night” bonus-winning stoppage, “Jack Della Maddalena was focused and poised throughout his matchup with the higher-ranked Gilbert Burns. The 27-year-old’s striking was on point throughout the fight. He used combinations and mixed up his targets well. Even when things were not going his way, thanks to Burns’ grappling skills, Della Maddalena never panicked. That composure led to him landing a knee in the third round after a scramble to get off the mat and setting up the ground strikes that finished the fight at the 3:43 mark of Round 3.

“Della Maddalena showed a gap in his overall skills in this fight, struggling with his defensive grappling, but at just 27, the Australian has time to shore up that weakness in the future.

“Look for Della Maddalena to jump up in the official UFC welterweight rankings following UFC 299, as he entered the fight at No. 11, and Burns was No. 4. He is now 7-0 in the UFC and 17-2 as a pro.

“Also, it must be noted, that Burns was up 20-18 on two scorecards heading into the third round.

Della Maddalena is the No. 4 fighter in the official UFC welterweight rankings heading into UFC 315.

UFC 315 Main Event Opening Odds

When the betting odds opened for the UFC 315 main event, Muhammad was a -175 betting favorite over Della Maddalena, who was listed as the +150 betting underdog. Today, the champ is -250 and the challenger is +210.

We will more on the UFC 315 fight card and the Muhammad vs. Della Maddalena matchup as fight night approaches.