Will Trump’s tariffs and his assault on the federal government lead to a deeper crash, or even a recession? Market experts advise long-term investors and 401(k) holders to sit tight.
By Hank Tucker, Forbes Staff
While the last three weeks have been punishing for the stock market, veteran wealth managers are sounding a similar refrain for long-term investors: don’t panic.
It can be difficult advice to heed when alarming headlines are regularly flooding the news. Two days after the S&P 500 index hit its all-time high on February 19, hedge fund billionaire Steve Cohen made a prescient prediction that he wouldn’t be surprised to see a “significant correction” in the stock market, calling tariffs an additional tax. On Tuesday this week, JPMorgan economists raised their recession risk forecast for this year to 40% from 30%. The S&P 500 is down 9% from its high and seems destined to fall further.
But history suggests changes in sentiment often happen much faster than investors expect. Just last year, when stocks fell 8.5% over three weeks in July and August, those losses were erased within a month. The same is true of the S&P 500’s last 10% correction, which took place from July to October 2023.
In fact, Dave Donabedian, co-chief investment officer of CIBC Private Wealth U.S., which manages $87 billion in assets, says his firm researched “true crises” far more consequential than the current self-inflicted declines fueled by tariffs—shocks to the system like outbreaks of war or the onset of Covid-19.
“What you find is that about two-thirds of the time, the S&P 500 has recovered all that it lost after the shock in a month,” says Donabedian. “The punch line is don’t do knee-jerk selling, and we’ve certainly had some of those conversations in the last week or so.”
The primary culprit for the current stock market swoon is the uncertainty caused by President Donald Trump’s imposition of tariffs on imports from China, Canada and Mexico. Trump initially announced the tariffs over the weekend prior to February 3, but when the market opened that day down 2%, he changed course and granted Mexico and Canada a temporary 30-day reprieve following concessions they made to secure their borders with the U.S. Stocks quickly rebounded.
That pause expired with Trump allowing the tariffs to take effect on March 4, but he soon carved out exemptions for some goods subject to a trade agreement he signed during his first term. Since then, investors have become increasingly dismayed at Trump’s uncharacteristic indifference to the stock market—last Thursday, he told reporters he’s “not even looking at the market.” This week, he walked back a threat to hike tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminum imports to 50%, but added a 25% charge on those metals shipped from any foreign country, leading to retaliatory tariffs imposed by the European Union on U.S. imports. The whipsawing is only adding to investors’ uneasiness.
“We knew tariffs were negative for economies, but it’s less the impact of the tariffs themselves than the uncertainty of the policy,” says Adrian Helfert, chief investment officer for alternative and multi-asset portfolios at Westwood. “Small and mid-sized businesses need to know what to expect so they can plan their capital expenditures. Uncertainty leads to businesses that are nervous to plan for a future that they don’t know.”
More clarity shouldn’t be particularly hard to provide, and while Donabedian contends it would be “foolish” to make a short-term prediction about whether the next piece of news is better or worse for investors, the perceived risk of the tariffs could peak within the next couple of months. “Our view is still that we get a year of slow growth, but not a recession,” he says.
And there’s reason for optimism elsewhere in the economy. Inflation eased to 2.8% in February, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Wednesday, slightly lower than consensus expectations, which improved hopes that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates this year. The S&P 500 crawled 0.5% higher yesterday, resisting the downward trend and signaling that a broader rebound could be on tap if the tariff issue gets resolved.
The top-performing S&P sector Wednesday was information technology, which gained 1.6% despite being one of the index’s largest laggards of the year, illustrating how quickly trends can reverse. Selling off parts of portfolios that look precarious could backfire if news changes quickly.
“For your average retail investor, the temptation is to say ‘I’ve got to do something’ during times like this, when the reality is, if you’re a long term investor, often your best decision is to stay out of your own way,” says Jim Baird, chief investment officer at Plante Moran Financial Advisors. “Unfortunately in this country, we’ve got far more people that aren’t saving enough or investing enough in preparation for their retirement than those that are over-saving or over-investing.”
Some strategists even see this as a time to buy into parts of the market that have underperformed if investors do have extra cash. The Russell 2000 index tracking small-cap stocks is down 17% from its post-election high and has hardly budged since the end of 2020, while large caps have enjoyed stronger gains for the last two years.
“If somebody were all in on the S&P 500, I might counsel a little more diversification there, to maybe look at some things in the small- and mid-cap space or look at international, which has finally started to outperform the U.S.,” says Donabedian. Since Trump took office in January, Chinese stocks as measured by MSCI China are up 22%, and MSCI Europe has gained 9%. The S&P 500 is down nearly 7% over the same period. Says Donabedian, “It’s an opportunity to pick some spots in the equity markets that have underperformed for a number of years.”
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