Did The Toronto Raptors Overpay Brandon Ingram?

When the Toronto Raptors traded Bruce Brown, Kelly Olynyk, and draft capital for Brandon Ingram, they were taking a major risk.

One reason was that he was on an expiring contract, and the team had no guarantee that he would re-sign with them in the offseason. However, on Tuesday, they thwarted that concern – agreeing to a 3-year, 120-million-dollar extension, with the final season being a player option.

Now, just because the Raptors have Ingram under contract for the next few years doesn’t mean that all concern is gone. The reason Ingram was even available in the first place was because the New Orleans Pelicans weren’t willing to cough up the big bucks for Ingram.

You can’t really blame them, either. In the past, we’ve discussed the difficulties that come with signing players like Ingram to max extensions. Fortunately, at three years and an average of 23.5% of the salary cap, this deal is not a max contract (note: the maximum amount the Raptors could have offered him was three years for 144 million).

But just because it isn’t a max contract doesn’t guarantee that it is a great move by the Raptors. So, is this version of Ingram worth 40 million dollars per season?

Contract Value Based On Player Production

In the offseason, we came up with a way to estimate how much a player should be making based on past production. To learn more about it, check out the article linked here. But the short of it is that we multiply how many wins a player is estimated to provide (via Dunks & Threes) by the average cost of a win in a given season.

Since Ingram and the Pelicans dealt with so many injuries, it is hard to glean too much insight from this season. So, instead, we will use last year’s data. In 2023-24, Ingram had an Ew (Estimated Wins) output of 6.4 (64th in the NBA).

Next season, a win will be worth roughly 3.8 million dollars. So, by that logic, Ingram’s production will be worth 24.3 million dollars (a little under 14 million dollars less than he’ll be making).

Now, Ingram did miss 18 games last season, which limited the amount of time he could contribute to winning. If Ingram produced at the same pace and played, say, 79 games, he would be worth about 30 million dollars.

For Ingram, playing 79 of 82 games is easier said than done, as he’s missed at least 18 games in every season since his rookie year.

How Does His Deal Compare To The Rest Of The Market?

Full transparency here, our formula is an arbitrary one (albeit one that was inspired by the great Seth Partnow), and, at the end of the day, a contract is only as good as how it compares to the market it exists within.

According to Spotrac, Ingram is currently on the books to be the 39th-highest-paid player in the NBA in 2025-26. However, one-number metrics like Estimated Plus-Minus (EPM) have viewed Ingram as a top 60-80 player of the last half decade.

The Bottom Line

The Raptors did well to extend Ingram on a multi-year deal that was less than the maximum amount they could offer him at this time. But, unless Ingram experiences a sizable increase in production (and stays healthier than he has in the past), it seems that Canada’s only NBA team may have still slightly overpaid their new star.